Bitcoin Halving 2024: Everything You Need to Know

Countdown Has Started

In April 2024, Bitcoin will undergo its fourth halving event. At that time, miners’ rewards per block will be slashed from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. What does this mean? Read on to find out.

What is Halving? Why Does It Happen Every Four Years?

Simply put: Halving is an automatic mechanism on the Bitcoin network that triggers every 210,000 blocks (about every 4 years), cutting miners’ rewards in half. This is a rule hard-coded by Satoshi Nakamoto.

Why do this? To control inflation. Bitcoin’s total supply is capped at 21 million, and the purpose of halving is to slow down the rate of new coin issuance, creating scarcity. It follows the logic of gold—mining gets harder and harder, and the asset becomes more valuable due to its rarity.

Historical Data Overview:

• November 2012: First halving, reward 50→25 BTC, price on the day $12.35, 150 days later $127

• July 2016: Reward 25→12.5 BTC, price on the day $650.63, 150 days later $758.81

• May 2020: Reward 12.5→6.25 BTC, price on the day $8,740, 150 days later $10,943

• April 2024: Reward 6.25→3.125 BTC (upcoming)

Currently, there are 19.46 million BTC in circulation on-chain, getting closer and closer to the 21 million cap. At this rate, the last Bitcoin is expected to be mined in 2140.

Who Hurts Most from the Halving? Miners or Investors?

Miners’ Nightmare

This is a harsh reality: halved rewards = immediate 50% income cut.

Before the halving, miners earn coins by mining. After the halving, the same hash power yields only half the income. Small mining farms are hit hardest because they have weaker cost-control abilities and may be forced to shut down. This leads to further industry concentration, with big players dominating even more.

But don’t be too pessimistic. Historical data shows that Bitcoin prices usually catch up after the halving. If BTC rises from $40k to $100k, miners’ earnings can actually increase (each coin is more valuable). The issue is the time lag—it can take months for prices to rise after the halving, so miners have to rely on reserves and financing to survive this period.

Interestingly, after the last halving, the mining industry didn’t exit en masse as expected. Most miners chose to stick it out, betting on long-term bullishness.

Investors’ Banquet

For crypto investors, halving = increased scarcity = potential price driver. The logic is simple: new supply is cut in half, if demand stays the same or rises, supply can’t keep up, and prices naturally go up.

But this isn’t a sure thing. Whether halving triggers a bull run depends on:

• Macro factors: Is the Fed raising or lowering rates? Is inflation under control?
• Policy factors: Will the US approve spot BTC ETFs? How eager are institutions to join?
• Technical factors: Can new applications like Bitcoin Ordinals and inscriptions continue to attract users?
• Sentiment factors: Is the entire crypto market FOMO or panic?

Historical Pattern: After each of the first three halvings, Bitcoin typically went through this cycle—

1. Accumulation phase (13-22 months): Price moves sideways or slightly up, market is sluggish
2. Parabolic phase (10-15 months): Prices hit new highs, rising 10x or more
3. Correction phase (6-12 months): Major pullback, but still higher than pre-halving levels

Based on this model, analysts have made various predictions. Here are some notable voices:

• Pantera Capital: BTC will reach $150k this cycle
• Standard Chartered: Will hit $120k by the end of 2024
• Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood: Over $1.5M before 2030 (this is a bit aggressive, take it or leave it)
• Jesse Myers (Bitcoin Onramp founder): Will break $100k before the next halving

Will Halving Drag Down Other Coins?

Definitely. Bitcoin is the leader—its performance sets the pace for the entire market. Major coins like Ethereum and Solana all follow its rhythm.

An interesting perspective from analyst Michael van de Poppe: the 8-10 months before a halving is the best window to bottom-fish altcoins. Why? Because market confidence is lowest, and altcoin prices are usually beaten down the most. Historically, ETH/USD bottomed about 252 days before the halving in both October 2015 and September 2019—this isn’t a coincidence.

How to Seize the Halving Opportunity?

Conservative: Buy and Hold

The simplest approach. Choose a reputable exchange (such as Gate.io), buy BTC, and just hold it, waiting for the next bull market. This is the most beginner-friendly strategy.

Moderately Aggressive: Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA)

Don’t bet on a single entry point—invest in batches over time. For example, buy $500 worth of BTC every month. This lowers your average cost and avoids the embarrassment of buying all-in at the top.

Active Trader

• Spot Trading: Go long or short on Gate.io, profiting from price swings around the halving
• Futures Contracts: Use 5-10x leverage for long/short positions; higher risks, but higher rewards (and you can get liquidated just as quickly)
• Grid Trading Bots: Set upper and lower limits so bots automatically buy and sell, making it easy to capture volatility

Passive Income: Set-and-Forget

Put your BTC in Gate Earn for staking, lending, or liquidity mining, and collect interest. BTC APYs aren’t high right now, but it’s better than having your coins do nothing in your wallet.

Is Halving Really That Important?

It’s important, but don’t mythologize it. Halving is just a trigger—the real market drivers are supply, demand, and sentiment.

Will the 2024 halving spark a rally like the last three? The key variables are:

• Progress of US spot ETF approvals
• Fed monetary policy
• Whether the global economy enters a recession
• Longevity of hot topics like AI and Web3

If these conditions align, halving could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. If not, it could be just another event.

Final Note: Halving is cyclical, happening every four years. Historically, long-term BTC holders have always profited. But short-term volatility remains fierce—risk education always comes first.