November 22 | ETH Trend Analysis

Core Insights

Current Price: $2,774 (as of November 22, 10:14 AM)

Short-term outlook: Neutral to bearish. ETH is in a technically oversold state, but still weighed down by macro sentiment and liquidation pressure. Expected to fluctuate in the range of $2,700-$2,850 within the next 24 hours. If it can hold the support level at $2,759, a rebound to the resistance area around $2,800 is likely.

Key Support:

• $2,759 (1-hour EMA12 + Long Position Liquidation Zone)
• $2,700 (strong support, cumulative long position liquidation approximately $238M + psychological barrier)

Key Resistance:

• $2,780 (1 hour EMA26)
• $2,854 (1 hour SMA50 + options maximum pain point around $2,850)

Technical Analysis

multiple time frame signals

Key Technical Level

• Immediate Support: $2,759 (EMA12) breaking will test $2,700 strong support.
• Rebound Target: Looking towards the $2,850 maximum pain point after breaking through $2,780.
• Trend Judgment: Currently in a bearish structure, but the extremely oversold condition suggests a short-term rebound risk.

Derivative Data

• Open Interest: 24-hour decrease of -9.03%, indicating a weakening of bearish momentum.
• Funding Rate: Mixed signals, averaging around 0.00%, slightly bullish on major exchanges.
• Options Maximum Pain Point: $2,850 (expires on November 25), has a pull-up effect on the price
• Liquidation Risk: Cumulative long position risk below $159M-$418M, while the risk of short positions above is relatively low.

Market Sentiment and Capital Flow

Social Sentiment: Short-term bearish sentiment dominates (about 60%), but bottom signals are appearing.

• Extreme Fear (Fear & Greed Index hits a new low this year)
• KOLs generally believe that the fundamentals are disconnected from the price, and that there is currently mispricing.
• Institutions continue to accumulate (e.g., Bitmine increases holdings by 17,000 ETH)

Capital Flow:

• ETH spot ETF has seen a net outflow for 10 consecutive days, with an outflow of $261.59M on November 20.
• Long position liquidation within 24 hours $326M vs Short position liquidation $65M

Risk Factors

Downside Risk:

• The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December has dropped to 30%, and the macro environment is tightening.
• Low network activity, DeFi/NFT usage rate declines
• A drop below $2,700 will trigger a larger scale liquidation.

Upward Catalyst:

• The technical indicators are extremely oversold, and similar levels have historically often seen a rebound.
• Fusaka upgrade (December 3rd) will bring 8-10 times blob expansion
• Maximum pain point returns to $2,850 before options expiration

Trading Strategy Reference

Bullish Scenario (Probability: Medium)

• Entry: around $2,760
• Target: $2,850
• Stop Loss: $2,720
• Risk-reward ratio: 2.25:1

Bearish Scenario (Probability: High)

• Entry: Break below $2,759
• Target: $2,700
• Stop Loss: $2,790
• Risk-Reward Ratio: 1.90:1

Summary

ETH is currently in a technically oversold but structurally weak state. It is expected to maintain a range of $2,700-$2,850 in the short term, with a key focus on whether it can hold the $2,759 support. If macro sentiment stabilizes along with technical repairs, there is a possibility of a rebound towards $2,800-$2,850. However, the overall risk is skewed to the downside, and it is recommended to control positions and wait for clear trend signals.