November 21 | BTC trend analysis

Core Viewpoints

Current Price: $85,678 (as of November 21, 14:22)

Short-term outlook: Neutral to bullish. The technical indicators show extreme oversold conditions (RSI 24), but on-chain data shows a net outflow of 853 BTC indicating accumulation behavior. Community sentiment remains resilient in fear, with expectations of a rebound to the $87,000-$88,000 range during the day.

Key Support: $85,646 (Daily Bollinger Band Lower Bound + Liquidity Cluster)

Key Resistance: $87,845-$88,117 (Hourly EMA26 + Bear Liquidation Cluster)

Market Overview

BTC experienced a significant pullback today, mainly influenced by the better-than-expected U.S. employment data affecting interest rate cut expectations, triggering a sell-off in risk assets. The liquidation amount within 24 hours reached $831 million, of which 89% were long positions.

Technical Analysis

multiple time frame trends

The price has broken below all major moving averages, and the Bollinger Bands have contracted to the lower band, indicating strong selling pressure but possibly nearing exhaustion.

Derivatives Market Analysis

• Open Interest: Decreased by 8.68% in the last 24 hours to $61.4B. The decline in open interest along with the drop in price indicates a surrender of bulls, which is beneficial for subsequent stability.
• Funding Rate: +0.007% to +0.01%, a slight positive value indicates that longs are still paying but the pressure is lower.
• Liquidation Risk: A total of $470M liquidations in the last 24 hours (89% long), with cumulative long liquidations of $1.05B below the current price level vs short liquidations of $1.23B above.

Key Price Level Analysis

On-chain Data Analysis

exchange fund flow

• Net Outflow: -853.63 BTC (24 hours), indicating that funds are flowing out of the exchange, reducing selling pressure.
• Exchange Reserves: 2.37 million BTC, a decrease from the previous period, supply tightening provides support for price bottom.
• Active Addresses: Approximately 919,000, maintained at a healthy level, indicating a solid user base.

Whale Movements

An important whale sell-off event has occurred in the market, with early trader Owen Gunden's long-dormant wallet transferring approximately $1.3 billion in BTC to exchanges, serving as a significant catalyst for the recent decline. Such distribution behavior may continue to exert pressure in the short term, but overall net outflow data indicates that more funds are accumulating off-exchange.

Social Sentiment Analysis

Community Discussion Focus

The discussion on the Twitter/X platform presents a cautiously optimistic attitude:

• Historical Analogy: Users generally compare this pullback to the adjustments during the bull markets of 2017 and 2021, considering it a normal bull market pullback rather than a bear market reversal.
• Bottom-Fishing Sentiment: The “diamond hands” mentality dominates, with the community encouraging accumulation during panic and avoiding panic selling.
• Technical Analysis Discussion: Focus on technical signals such as moving average crossovers. Some analysts believe this indicates a local bottom formation.

opinion leader's viewpoint

• PlanB: Remains bullish, believes that the panic around the 50-week moving average is an overreaction based on 2019, predicting $100K+ as a potential support-turned-resistance level.
• Willy Woo: Neutral to bullish, focusing on DXY as a liquidity indicator, believes that a weaker dollar will be favorable for a BTC rebound.

Trading Strategy Recommendations

Long and Short Scenario Analysis

Day Trading Key Points

• Long Conditions: Stabilize above $86,000 and RSI rebounds above 30, target looking towards $87,000-$88,000
• Stop Loss Setting: If it falls below $85,646 daily support, the risk increases and it may test $83,000.
• Funding Rate Monitoring: If it turns negative, it indicates excessive short positions, which is beneficial for short covering to drive a rebound.

Summary and Outlook

BTC is currently facing a strong downward trend, but extremely oversold technical indicators, combined with net outflows of on-chain funds, have created conditions for a short-term rebound. The key lies in whether it can hold the support level of $85,646; if it stabilizes, it is expected to rebound to the range of $87,000-$88,000.

Risk Warning: There is still uncertainty in the macro environment, and changes in Federal Reserve policy expectations may continue to affect risk assets. It is advisable to manage positions and wait for clear technical confirmation signals before increasing holdings.