The minutes from the Federal Reserve's October meeting and recent statements from several officials indicate significant disagreements on whether to cut interest rates in December. This "stalemate" is the root cause of increased market volatility and uncertainty. They can be roughly divided into three camps:

Position Camp Main Points Focus Areas Representative Figures
🕊️ Doves support continuing interest rate cuts in December, believing this is an "insurance" against risks in the labor market. The labor market remains weak, and high interest rates impact ordinary families and consumers. Governor Waller.
🦅 Hawks oppose further rate cuts, believing that interest rates should remain unchanged. The stubbornness of inflation. The overall inflation rate has remained persistently above the 2% target, with little sign of a timely decline. Cleveland Fed President Mester and Dallas Fed President Logan.
⚖️ Centrists tend to be patient and rely on data, and a rate cut in December is "not set in stone." They aim to balance between inflation and employment risks and hope to see clearer economic data trends. Chairman Powell and Vice Chairman Jefferson.
🔍 Two key factors influencing decision-making
It is the uncertainty regarding the following two core issues that has led to the aforementioned differences:
1. The persistence of inflation: Despite the decline in housing service prices, it has been offset by the rise in commodity prices, reflecting to some extent the impact of the tariff policy at the beginning of the year. Many officials are concerned that inflation has not shown signs of sustainably returning to the 2% target.
2. The Dilemma of Missing Data: The previously record-breaking federal government shutdown led to delays or missing releases of a series of key economic data (including labor market, inflation, and other indicators). This means that the Federal Reserve may face a dilemma of "incomplete information" when making decisions at the December meeting. For example, the non-farm employment report for October, originally scheduled to be released in November, has been canceled, and all data will be consolidated into the November report to be released on December 16—just after the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting in December. This undoubtedly increases the difficulty of decision-making.
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