November 20 | BTC Trend Analysis

Core Insights

Current Price: $91,804 ( as of November 20, 09:10 Beijing Time )

• 24-hour drop: -0.45%
• Trading Volume: $8.24 billion
• Market Cap: $1.83 trillion

Short-term Outlook: Neutral to cautiously optimistic

• The technical indicators show oversold rebound signals, with the daily RSI dropping to 31.08 entering the oversold zone.
• On-chain data support: Continuous net outflow from exchanges, whales continue to accumulate
• Macroeconomic pressures remain: significant net outflows from ETFs, and expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have cooled.

Key Support:

• $88,870 ( strong support ) - convergence of the lower Bollinger Band and the daily lower track
• $92,428 ( medium support ) - 4-hour Bollinger Band middle line ( SMA20)

Key Resistance:

• $92,854 ( medium resistance ) - 1-hour Bollinger Band upper band
• $96,384 ( strong resistance ) - Daily EMA12 and 4-hour SMA50 convergence point

Technical Analysis

multi-timeframe evaluation

The short-term technical analysis shows that the MACD histogram on the 1-hour and 4-hour levels has turned positive, indicating a weakening of bearish momentum. The daily chart is severely oversold, creating conditions for a rebound, but the price remains below all major moving averages.

Derivatives Data

The total market open interest is $6.711 billion, with a 24-hour increase of 2.52%. The funding rate remains slightly positive at ( Binance 0.0034%, Bybit/OKX 0.01%), indicating a relatively balanced long and short position, with no extreme sentiment.

On-chain Analysis

Exchange liquidity

• November 19: Net outflow of 8,050 BTC
• November 18: Net outflow of 18,299 BTC
• Total in 48 hours: Net outflow of approximately 26,348 BTC

The continued net outflow indicates that long-term holders are accumulating, reducing the selling pressure on exchanges. The exchange's BTC reserves have fallen to 2.37 million coins, a multi-month low.

Whale Movement

This week, whale trading activity reached a new high in 2025, with over 102,900 large transactions exceeding 100,000 USD. Key findings:

• 10,000-100,000 BTC holders: 3% net increase over 30 days, actively accumulating
• Long-term dormant coins ( > 5 years ): Net increase of 278,000 BTC
• Mid-term holders ( 3-5 years ): net reduction of 273,000 BTC, major sellers

Market Sentiment

( social media sentiment

The sentiment in the Twitter/X community is relatively cautious, with major viewpoints diverging:

• Bears: Technical analysts warn of a possible test of the $60,000-$70,000 range
• Bullish faction: MicroStrategy CEO Saylor insists on a long-term bullish outlook, stating that now is a “shopping opportunity”.
• Neutral faction: Emphasizes that the current situation is a normal pullback, and historically oversold positions are usually accompanied by a rebound.

) ETF trends impact

Severe outflow for Bitcoin spot ETF in the US:

• BlackRock's IBIT saw a record outflow of $523 million in a single day.
• The total net outflow in November was approximately 2.9 billion US dollars.
• Forming a negative feedback loop with the price decline

Risk Assessment

Upside Catalyst:

• Oversold technical rebound
• On-chain accumulation continues
• Improvement in the macro environment ### Weak employment data raises expectations for interest rate cuts ###

Downside Risk:

• ETF continues to outflow
• The Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance
• Technical support at $88,870 breached

Trading Strategy Reference

Rebound Trading: Current position long, target $96,384, stop loss $88,870, risk-reward ratio 1.22 Risk Control: If it falls below the strong support of $88,870, be wary of further declines to the $83,000-$84,000 range.

Probability Assessment: Short-term rebound probability 60%, further decline probability 30%, sideways consolidation 10%

Summary

BTC is currently in a key support area, with technical oversold conditions combined with on-chain accumulation signals creating conditions for a rebound. Whether it can stabilize above $92,400 and launch an attack towards $96,400 in the short term will largely depend on changes in macro sentiment and ETF fund flows. It is recommended to pay attention to U.S. employment data and speeches from Federal Reserve officials as important references for judging the next direction.