The probability of fall #比特币行情观察 still prevails, and the target situation is clear.

1. Short-term outlook: A fall to the main support level of $85,000-$88,000 in the short term, as risk aversion in global capital and the Fed's hawkish stance will continue to restrain the market. If the rebound ends, the next target will be aimed at the $85,000-$88,000 range, which is close to the lower range after "Liberation Day" in April and has certain technical support.
2. Medium-term trend: It depends on changes in policies and liquidity. If negative policies escalate further, or if the Federal Reserve maintains a high interest rate policy, the price of Bitcoin could drop to a threshold of $80,000, and there is even the possibility of continued panic testing around $75,000 to $76,000 next year. Conversely, if there are signs of policy easing, coupled with the ongoing influx of ETF funds, a temporary bottom could form around $85,000, entering a consolidation phase.
3. Long-term trend: The quad cycle did not fail early.
In April 2025, Bitcoin will complete its fourth halving. Based on historical experience, the bullish cycle usually lasts for 12-18 months after the halving, and the year of decline according to the four-year cycle is 2026. Although this decline is a phase adjustment resulting from political shocks, some funds have expectations of a decline next year. Given the large volume of each decline ( as shown in the chart below ), it is suspected that some market funds are trying to escape in search of safety.