Data omissions exacerbate internal divisions at the Fed, with the probability of no action in December rising sharply.

[Data gap exacerbates internal divisions within the Fed, with a sharp rise in the probability of no action in December] The U.S. employment data hiatus will continue until after the Fed's December meeting, increasing policy uncertainty and significantly raising the likelihood of pausing interest rate cuts. Although the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data on Thursday, it has been made clear that the next data release will have to wait until December 16, when the complete dataset for November will include some data from October. The Fed's December policy meeting will conclude on the 10th, Eastern Time. Meanwhile, the latest minutes from the Fed's October meeting show that officials have serious disagreements on whether a third consecutive rate cut is necessary. Against this backdrop, the CME FedWatch tool indicates that the probability of no action at the December meeting has risen from about 50% to nearly 70%.