Will interest rates be lowered in December? This question has recently caused quite a stir in the market.

A month ago, traders were full of confidence - data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange showed that 94% were betting on a 25 basis point cut. What happened? Now the probability has been slashed to less than 40%. Last week it was still over 60%, and this week it has collapsed.

What is the reason? The Federal Reserve is starting to argue internally.

On November 17, the three major U.S. stock indices were all in the red. The Dow fell by 1.18%, the S&P fell by 0.92%, and the Nasdaq also dropped by 0.84%. The market is already re-evaluating the scenario of "possibly not cutting interest rates."

What is the current situation inside the Fed? Basically, there are two factions wrestling with each other:

**On the dovish side**, Governor Waller has spoken out—supporting a 25 basis point cut in December. His reasoning is that the labor market is nearing stagnation and needs a bit of a buffer. Moreover, inflation data is actually holding up well.

The **hawkish side** hasn't finished speaking yet (the original text was cut off), but it's clear that there are significant differences.

To be honest, this wave of expectations and volatility has quite an impact on the crypto space. A rate cut means liquidity easing, and funds may flow into risk assets; if there is no cut, the dollar will continue to be strong, putting pressure on the crypto market.

Let's see how the meeting in December goes. The market is already prepared for both scenarios, what about you?