$MSTR 2027-2028 The big BET

MicroStrategy $MSTR can’t blow up today because nothing is forcing them to sell, there’s no margin call, and no debt alarm ringing right now. The only way they fail is if Bitcoin $BTC nukes hard AND stays low during the exact period when debt holders can demand cash, which starts late 2027 into 2028. That’s the kill-zone, not 2024, 2025, or early 2026. If BTC trades somewhere above ~$80K–$100K going into 2027, they’re probably fine because the stock should be strong enough for debt conversion instead of cash repayment. But if BTC is sitting below ~$60K into that window, the stock likely stays under the required conversion trigger levels, which means bondholders ask for cash, not shares, and MicroStrategy would suddenly need to find billions in liquidity fast, with no meaningful cash flow and only one weapon left: selling BTC size into weakness aka death by liquidity trap.

So the game is simple: today is safe because time > pressure, but 2027 matters because pressure > time. MicroStrategy doesn’t need BTC to go up eventually it needs BTC to be high when the bill arrives.

$MSTR will send us to dark ages if they get liquidated at a 70% drop.