How much can BTC actually rise to? Industry insiders provide answers using government data.

The future price of Bitcoin is an eternal mystery; supporters say it is digital gold, while skeptics claim it is all hype. But what if we change our perspective and use the debt and money supply forecast data from the U.S. Congressional Budget Office to make predictions?

Veteran Bitcoin investor Mark Moss recently did just that. This guy is not the kind of crypto celebrity who became famous by shouting out trades; he has truly been involved in tech entrepreneurship, experienced multiple bull and bear markets, and is currently running a Bitcoin investment fund. His logic is quite simple: The real driving force behind BTC prices is not emotion, but liquidity and monetary policy.

Key Data: By 2030, the total global asset storage will reach $1.6 trillion.

Moss made a calculation based on officially public data. By 2030, the global “store of value” asset pool (gold, stocks, bonds, real estate, etc.) is expected to expand to 16 trillion USD. If Bitcoin only captures 1.25% of that, the price of BTC could reach 1 million USD.

Sounds exaggerated? Let's benchmark: gold currently has a market value of $21 trillion. According to this logic, BTC could completely catch up to the scale of gold within ten years.

Extended Projections for 2040 and 2050

If currency continues to be overissued, the global asset storage pool may expand to $35 trillion by 2040. At that time, BTC could soar to $14 million.

The figures for 2050 are even more outrageous—but Moss didn’t provide a specific number, just saying it should fall within the “tens of millions” range. The key point is that by then, Bitcoin may no longer be considered an “alternative asset,” but rather become a standard configuration, much like the internet.

Is the risk of entering now even lower than in 2015?

Moss raised an interesting point: he entered the market in 2015 at a price of 300 dollars, which seemed like a perfect bottom call, but the risks at that time were actually huge—would the government ban it? Would it be surpassed by other coins? Could it survive?

The situation has reversed now. The government is buying, public companies are hoarding, and the president himself has exposure. More than 170 listed companies have added BTC to their balance sheets. From a risk-adjusted return perspective, entering the market now is actually more rational than in previous years—because BTC has already proven its resilience.

What is essentially driving up the price?

Moss's core idea is: the reason for the rise in prices of all assets (houses, stocks, BTC) is the same - more and more new currency is chasing after limited things. Why is gold valuable? Because its total supply is limited. BTC follows the same logic, except that the cap is written into the code.

Bottom Line: This is not the dream of a gambler, but a logical inference about the current global debt-currency system. The issue is not whether BTC will rise, but how many are willing to understand why it rises.