Lots of nonsense on CT with the current correction,

Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle and extended cycle theories don’t quite add up.

Neither fully gets what’s driving $BTC.

There are three factors shaking things up and what might come next.

1️⃣ Bitcoin’s IPO vibe (@jvisserlabs's thesis)

Early holders are selling off, like execs cashing out after a company goes public.

On-chain data shows old coins moving, and big players like Galaxy Digital are unloading.

This keeps a lid on prices, but it’s slowing down.

Once this overhang clears, BTC could move higher with less baggage.

2️⃣ The dollar’s drag

A strong U.S. dollar (DXY) weighs on risk assets like BTC.

But this dollar strength, tied to QT and rates, might fade as liquidity creeps back.

Charts suggest a dollar pullback soon, which could spark crypto.

3️⃣ Government shutdown squeeze

U.S. government shutdowns pause Treasury payments, drying up market liquidity.

When spending kicks back in, a flood of liquidity could lift BTC, potentially catching shorts by surprise near highs.

The extended cycle crowd gets that BTC’s tied to macro factors like liquidity and business cycles, but they’re off on the shape of the move.