11.14 Encryption circle breaks through the window paper, long-lost Bitcoin Bear Market

If we can't meet at the peak, let's reunite in the valley. Last night, the US stocks experienced a big dump, and Bitcoin also faced a severe setback. The resistance at 98000 was very strong, but it was still powerless to turn the tide and directly broke through this morning. Currently, Bitcoin is hovering around the 96000 level.

In fact, this time when 98000 was broken, the level of panic far exceeded that of the spike on October 11th. The last time it was to clean up leverage, this time it is to make the market seriously examine whether the coin circle has already entered a bear market.

Talking about the views of the hunter himself, in fact, after the first fall below 106000, Bitcoin had already entered a bear market cycle. The rebound to 107500 at the beginning of this week was merely a rebound adjustment after breaking the weekly bull-bear line, perfectly pressured downwards, further confirming the bear market structure. Therefore, today's market falling below 98000 is a logical consequence. Here, I want to tell everyone that the so-called news, the so-called collective hawkish shift of the Federal Reserve last night, is just a scapegoat that the market needs afterwards. For all those looking to buy the dip and optimistic about a bull market, the unexpected fall in the market has led to a drastic shift in mentality, resulting in hesitation and panic. At this moment, there is an urgent need for psychological comfort. For KOLs, the discourse on buying the dip has collapsed, and there is a pressing need to reshuffle their position, casting the blame elsewhere, insisting that they are not at fault; the fault lies with the market. They must maintain their persona as analysts. At this time, the Federal Reserve becomes the best scapegoat, as no one can question it; anyone who does will be decisively taken down. This is the reason that everyone in the market desperately needs right now; otherwise, it would mean admitting that they are foolish.

Objectively speaking, the collective hawkish turn of the Federal Reserve will indeed have an impact on the crypto market, but it is certainly not the core factor. The news is merely a catalyst for Bitcoin, accelerating the original pace. What might have taken a week to fall below 98000 is now compressed to one day due to the impact of the news, that's all. But does it affect your losses? Whether it's one day or one week, the result remains unchanged. As long as you still have the thought of bottom fishing, you cannot escape this round of explosion. Believe me, as long as you still want to bottom fish, there will be many more hard days ahead; this is just the beginning.

Then back to the main topic, I would like to share my current thoughts with all the big names.

First of all, the bear market mindset remains unchanged, this is the core idea. Great figures have taught us that when thoughts go wrong, the more you read, the more retrogressive it becomes. The same goes for the crypto world; if you can't figure out the direction, the harder you work, the more you lose money.

In the short term, combined with what Hunter just said, today's fall is a catalytic effect brought about by the Federal Reserve turning hawkish, which has accelerated the drop below 98000 to be completed in the short term. Therefore, the first phase of the bearish market has already ended, but this does not mean that the market will warm up; you can understand it as a halftime break.

95800 is today's lowest point, forming a single needle low. Currently, the rebound is weak, and it seems that after a sideways consolidation in the evening, there will be a second drop. However, just the opposite will happen tonight; not only will there be no drop, but a strong recovery will also occur. As I've said before, the first phase of the bearish trend has already completed its historical task, and we are now entering a window period before the start of the second phase.

What is this time for? It creates an escape time for the profit-taking in April. When talking about 95800, we must push the time to April. A picture makes it clear.

Did you see clearly? Everyone, in April, Bitcoin formed a large cyclical box oscillation between 93000 and 95800, and then broke the head and shoulders top downtrend, completing the second round of accelerated rise and continuously setting new historical highs. During this launch phase, the market maintained a downward pressure at 95800, then broke through the phase and retested to confirm support. It can be confirmed that this area is the profit-taking zone of this bull market. Now that the market has returned to 95800, profit-taking must be continuously offloaded in the interim, but the bottom positions still exist. This is a dense area for the exchange of chips between bulls and bears. Regardless of subsequent rises or falls, 95800 must give the market ample reaction time to readjust and complete a new round of chip exchange.

OK, now let's get back to the main point of the issue. Identify the market motivation.

Known condition: 98000 long position is trapped

            Current market panic

            There is no opportunity for long positions in the short term.

            95800 profit positions need time to escape

In summary, if the subsequent market continues to trend downwards in a bear market, is it necessary to lock in a long position at 98000? If the market continues to decline unilaterally in a short period and falls below 93000, it could trigger a forced liquidation of long positions, ultimately causing a complete market collapse, and there won't be time for the profit-taking at 95800 to escape. Can this consequence be borne?

The only way I can think of is for the market to rely on 95800 for a recovery and rise tonight, and to return above 98000, extending the recovery period. The benefit of doing this is that although the market returns above 98000, bottom-fishing long positions will not exit because of being unblocked, but rather slowly rise and oscillate after the recovery at 98000, allowing bulls to see the dawn of successful bottom-fishing, making them firmly believe that 98000 is a false break and that the bull market still exists. Therefore, if it falls below 98000 again later, bottom-fishing long positions will not panic and may even add positions at 93000, perfectly achieving the goal of accumulating long positions. At the same time, the long period of stabilization creates exit conditions for the profit-taking positions at 95800. Additionally, extending the time period facilitates the completion of a new round of chip exchange, with long positions passed on to bottom-fishing participants, while establishing new short positions.

I have finished speaking, who is in favor and who is against!

Tonight's operations, including those for next week, are extremely simple.

In the short term, rely on 95800 to go long, with a stop loss of 500 points. If the stop loss is triggered, wait for the market to return to 95800 to place a second long order.

This long position does not have a specific take-profit target and needs to pay attention to two levels: 98000 and 100500. It can be confirmed that 98000 will definitely be restored, but it is uncertain whether 100500 will be restored in the short term. Therefore, the take-profit needs to be adjusted. When the market returns to 98500, move your stop-loss to 98000. Whenever the market falls below 98000, that is when the long position should take profit. If there is further recovery and it returns to 100500, repeat the previous operation, and continue to move the stop-loss to the round number of 100000. On the long-term, do not attempt to catch the top with the second round of cycle short positions. The market needs to recover back to either 98000 or 100500. After the recovery, wait for a second break down; the phase of the second break down will be the entry signal for the second round of long-term short positions, with a target of 89000-88000, and the ultimate target for the second phase is 74000.

Follow to stay on the right path, the hunter takes you to the fast lane, there are no flashy theories here, only a soul-searching inquiry into human nature, exploring the market's bull and bear games, seeking the truest language of the market.