Nomura Research Report: The Federal Reserve May Hold Steady in December, Powell's Firm Stance Hints at a Pause in Rate Cuts

【Lianwen】Nomura’s latest research report has issued a shift signal—The Federal Reserve may hold steady in December.

Their logic is as follows: although the government shutdown has caused chaos in official data releases, the available indicators still show resilience in the employment market. More importantly, Powell’s tone at last month’s press conference was unexpectedly firm, which essentially confirms the “pause after two rate cuts” approach.

However, this situation is somewhat politically delicate. If the Fed truly pauses rate cuts, Trump is unlikely to be pleased—especially during an election year, pulling back could be seen as “suppressing economic growth.” It seems the Fed will once again be walking a tightrope between maintaining monetary policy independence and political pressure.