This market has been holding back for quite a while. Several days of downward movement, but have you noticed? Every time it looks like it's about to collapse, the bears can't accelerate downward; both sides are just faking their moves.

This isn't a sign of turning bearish; it's the entire market waiting for the US stock market to give an answer.

My judgment is this—most likely tonight when the US stocks open, they'll first test the lows, probing the support levels, then quickly bounce back to initiate a rebound. Why do I say that? Look at the US stock index futures—they've indeed weakened, but the VIX fear index hasn't exploded. What does this indicate? Capital hasn't left; it's just nerves on edge, watching and waiting.

Now, look at Bitcoin and Ethereum—have they broken support? Yes, but after breaking support, they haven't accelerated downward. This kind of market action can only mean one thing: the bears don't have the strength to break through. The recent regulatory news has caused at most short-term panic, not a trend-level reversal. Money is still in the market, waiting for a signal.

What to watch for? The first 5-minute candlestick after the US market opens. If this candle's decline is quickly recovered by more than half, it confirms emotional recovery, and a rebound is imminent. If it can't recover, then the market will continue to grind sideways, but the bears won't be able to push it down further—it's just delaying the inevitable.

At this point, it's not about turning bearish; it's about emotions reaching a critical limit. As long as the US stocks show some signs of stabilization, Bitcoin and Ethereum will also see a rebound and recovery.

Just wait for the signal.