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Natural Gas Rally: Cold Weather Bet Pays Off
Dec Nymex nat-gas futures closed Monday up 3.44%, extending Friday's 4.25% gain to hit a 3.5-month high. The driver? NOAA's forecast shift suggesting colder-than-normal early winter conditions for parts of the US.
Here's the backdrop:
- US production holding steady at 110 bcf/day (up 6.6% y/y), near record highs
- Demand at 77.2 bcf/day (+5.1% y/y)
- LNG export flows running 16.8 bcf/day, up 13.5% week-on-week
- Gas storage at +0.5% y/y, sitting 4.6% above seasonal average
The bearish counter: EIA just bumped 2025 production forecast to 107.14 bcf/day. Active drilling rigs are at a 2.25-year high of 125, signaling more supply coming.
Bottom line? Prices caught a relief rally on weather optimism, but oversupply concerns could cap upside. Market's basically betting: cold winter > production surge.