Here's Why Bitcoin's Bull Run Might Last Longer Than You Think

Real Vision’s Raoul Pal spotted something interesting: Bitcoin’s cycle tops have consistently aligned with peaks in the ISM Manufacturing PMI—and if that pattern holds, we could be looking at an extended cycle.

Here’s the kicker: The PMI has been below 50 (contraction) for 7 straight months. Historically, Bitcoin tends to run harder when manufacturing shows strength and the economy expands. But right now? The sector is getting hammered by tariffs, soft global demand, and policy uncertainty.

What’s wild is that September’s PMI data showed prices actually rising even as exports/imports contracted—meaning supply chain costs are spiking. One transportation equipment manager reported tariff costs pushing prices up by 20% in some cases.

The silver lining: ISM says manufacturing contractions don’t necessarily mean recession if the reading stays above 42.3. We’re nowhere near recession signals yet.

So the thesis is simple—if the manufacturing economy stays weak longer than usual, Bitcoin could ride a prolonged bull cycle instead of peaking early. The macro environment might actually be working in crypto’s favor, even if headlines look gloomy.

Full correlation details: BTC tops have historically peaked with PMI cycle highs. Watch for the PMI to sustainably break above 50—that’s when the real macro tailwinds kick in.