Coin Hunter: The 11.4 Bitcoin bull-bear line has been broken, bearish traders have taken over the market.

This wave of hunters is really very satisfying. The trend short order not only reached the top short but also captured several good increase the position points: 112300 (3%), 111500 (3%), 109500 (3%), 108200 (5%). Moreover, the most important thing is that the bull-bear line has already fallen, so there is no need for the short order to endure the torment caused by fluctuation.

Currently, the total position is at 100x leverage with a 14% position ratio, which is relatively heavy. However, I have been gradually rolling over my positions, constantly using profits to balance fluctuations. In other words, even if the market rebounds upwards, at least a 5000-point fluctuation is needed for me to break even. But under the current circumstances, it's very difficult for the market to return above 107000. What follows is a slow downward trend that is tormenting. This kind of torment is particularly hard on those with short orders, but for me, a slow decline is actually a good thing, and it is also beneficial for friends who watch my articles and livestreams.

My account now has 10300U, and four short orders are currently profitable.

112300 short order: 3% position floating profit 2400U

111500 short order: 3% position Fluctuation 2160U

109500 short order: 3% position floating profit 1560U

108200 short order: 5% position floating profit 1950U

Total: 8070U.

In the afternoon, I will choose to reduce my position by half within the range of 103500-104000. From my perspective, my current position no longer allows me to increase the position, so I need to appropriately reduce my position to balance the risk. Then on Wednesday, I will wait for a strong rebound and increase the position again at the range of 106000-107000. This is my current thought, and next I will demonstrate the feasibility of this idea.

First, let's review the specific changes in the market recently. The intuitive impression it gives us is one of torment, and this torment is not only directed at the bulls but also at the short orders.

Due to the long time period, I won't talk about the distant market trends (it's just as torturous and plays with people, as I explained in my previous article). Let's take the weekend's sideways fluctuation around 109500 as a point of discussion. After the Federal Reserve announced the interest rate cut, last week's market started a strong rise from 106000. This wave of increase also began at the boundary between the bull and bear markets, which from a technical perspective marks the establishment of the theory for the second wave of increase after the trend line support is tested.

From the perspective of the majority of retail investors, the market looks like this: it retraces to the trend line support at 106000, confirming the support and initiating an upward movement. The market breaks through the resistance position at 109500, which changes to a support position. Over the weekend, the market repeatedly rebounded upwards around the support of 109500. This indicates that last weekend, if one wanted to operate in the market, they could only passively go long, with no reasons to go short. The only reason to short would be if it falls below 109500.

Next, let's match the market trends that have occurred.

109500 repeatedly tested for support confirmation, long positions entered, short orders await a fall below to chase shorts. On Monday morning, the market started, the first wave broke 109500 and wiped out the short-term long positions, while short orders were chased in. However, at this moment, the market immediately faked a break below 109500 with a spike and quickly rebounded upwards, reaching a high of 110700, which wiped out the chasing shorts, and then unexpectedly commenced an accelerated decline. This wave of accelerated decline directly brought the market to the bull-bear boundary line at the support point of 106800, and then throughout Monday afternoon, it repeatedly spiked upwards at the bull-bear boundary line, showing strong bottom support.

From the perspective of retail investors in the market, the current market conditions are:

109500 broke down and accelerated the fall, and I have realized that the short order has been established, but the reaction is too slow, unable to keep up with the market rhythm. When realizing that the bears have taken over the rhythm, the market has already fallen to 106800, the bull-bear dividing line, a solid floor price. At this time, chasing the short is too fearful, and this is also the reason why I forced everyone to short yesterday, to face this fear head-on. We can all see the floor but dare not chase the short. This is the moment when the big players raise their butcher's knife. You will find that this is a deadlock. Yesterday, as long as you looked at the market, you could only rely on the floor price to go long; there was simply no position to short, nor any profit space. So what will you do? You tell me, either sit on the sidelines and watch the market fall with your eyes wide open, or break down and chase the short, or bottom fish to go long.

We won't talk about standing aside with no position here, just focus on bottom fishing to go long and chasing shorts on breakouts.

The first wave of the market relied on 106800, with the highest retracement to 108200, which did not provide an opportunity for the only short order entry at 108500. Since the short order cannot be placed, we still need to wait for a breakout. However, the long order has already seen the hope of a rebound and rise, and a large number of long orders are entering on the pullback.

The second wave of the market directly broke below 106800 with a large bearish candle on the hourly chart, hitting a low of 105300. Short-term long positions were stopped out, and long-term bottom-fishing long positions were trapped. Short orders were entered as the market rebounded back to 107500, and the short orders were stopped out again. Bottom-fishing trend long positions saw hope for a false breakout upwards, and short-term long positions were re-entered.

After repeated fluctuations around 107000 in the third wave of the market, it has directly opened a waterfall, and the market is currently hovering around 104000.

Brothers, have you understood the description of last weekend and yesterday's market through the Hunter? Have you felt this kind of torment? Whether you are going long, going short, or sitting on the sidelines, it is very uncomfortable. Next, I want to tell you a harsh truth: if you are currently in a flat position, you will definitely hit a stop-loss if you go short, and you will definitely be trapped if you go long.

Why, let me tell you the reasons.

We just reviewed the specific manifestations of how the market has been tormenting us during this period. So, everyone must understand one point: torment is just a means. What is the core purpose? My answer is to keep the bears uncomfortable and continuously create hope for the bulls. As long as the voices of bottom-fishing still exist, the market can steadily fall.

In the stage where it broke below the bull-bear line last night, we talked about being stopped out while chasing short orders, and short-term long orders were also stopped out. However, the trend long orders were not trapped because at the stage of breaking below the bull-bear line of 106800, the market was still experiencing back-and-forth at 107000. Moreover, the break did not happen in the latter half of the night, but before midnight, which also indicates that most retail investors were still active. Seeing such weak rebounds and the possibility of accelerating declines at any time, although they did not dare to chase short orders, the trend long orders could still be untangled.

Now the core issue arises. If the trend long positions are not trapped, who will pay for the profits of the fall if the subsequent market continues to trend down?

Conclusion: The core factor for the operations in the coming week is how to make the bullish positions willingly enter the market and get caught in a loss.

Since the goal is to trap the long positions, it is necessary to give the bulls some hope. The current slow decline cannot attract bulls at all; it will only instill fear in them. Therefore, the key to solving this problem lies in providing hope to the bulls. The upcoming market must inevitably form a sufficiently standard upward structure or pattern, along with a strong bullish candlestick.

Now you understand why the hunter needs to reduce the short order at the top, right? That's why I just reminded everyone that at this stage, as long as you are in a short position, going long will definitely get you trapped, and going short will definitely lead to stop-loss.

Having clarified the motives that the market will act upon next, we just need to follow and look for clues.

Currently, the only support visible on the market is at the positions of 103500 and 101500. I must state that I will not go long in this area, even if I know a big bullish candle will appear. I only need to find the point where my short order gets stopped out as the entry point for increasing the position.

It is impossible to estimate how to construct a suitable upward shape or structure within the range of 103500-101500. There is no need for us to spend effort on this; we can just wait for it to unfold. When this pattern structure appears, the first wave of the pullback is aimed at hitting short order stop-losses. Therefore, the ideal position for the bears to short is around 107000, which is the resistance level where the bull-bear line transitions. This position will inevitably accumulate a large number of short orders that must be cleared out. On one hand, this is to prevent retail investors from entering during the subsequent decline, and on the other hand, it gives hope for the bulls to rise again by returning to the bull-bear line.

Next, our operation has only one point and one situation.

Observe the market's return to 107000 and the subsequent changes. If the market repairs back above 107000 and hovers there repeatedly, without further extending upward, then a drop below this level again will be an excellent entry point for the second batch of short orders. After entering this wave of short orders, the target will be 98000.