#Plasma# @Plasma

After looking at the community's analysis of $XPL , it seems overly optimistic.

The price of 0.31 does seem to look like a bottom area from a technical perspective, but the competition in the stablecoin space is fiercer than expected. Although Tether has backing, the USDT ecosystem on TRON is already mature enough, and the cost of user migration is not low.

TVL of over 5 billion sounds good, but we need to see its sustainability. The initial data after launch often has elements of inflated numbers; the real test comes 3-6 months later, regarding user retention and trading frequency. This is similar to when BSC first started, where the TVL also saw a massive increase, but later there was significant differentiation.

Unlocking pressure in this area, 40% of the ecological fund is gradually released, 25% of the team will unlock next year, this pace is not very friendly to retail investors. Institutions may dump at key points to cash out, and 0.31 may not be the true bottom.

I tend to wait for the range of 0.25-0.28, or until the TVL stabilizes above 5B for more than 2 months before considering building a position. The stablecoin infrastructure is indeed a good track, but whether XPL can capture enough market share from TRON still requires time to verify.

In my opinion, XPL is more like an infrastructure investment, rather than a kind of explosive meme play. If you believe in the long-term value of stablecoin payments in this sector, participating with a small position is not a big issue. However, if you expect to double your investment in the short term, you may need to adjust your expectations.