Are the last two months of this year the best for the market? Should I charge ahead now or run away?

Written by: Rhythm

As October comes to a close, the cryptocurrency market seems to have shown some upward trends.

In the past two months, the word “cautious” has almost become the main theme of the cryptocurrency market, especially after experiencing the significant crash on 1011. The impact of this crash has gradually faded, and market sentiment seems not to have continued to deteriorate, but rather has gained new hope.

Starting from the end of the month, some bullish signals are gradually emerging: net inflow data turning positive, a batch approval of altcoin ETFs, and an increase in interest rate cut expectations.

ETF fund inflow, institutions getting back on board

The most striking data in October comes from ETFs.

Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen a cumulative net inflow of $4.21 billion this month, completely reversing the outflow trend of $1.23 billion in September. The assets under management have reached $178.2 billion, accounting for 6.8% of Bitcoin's total market capitalization. Looking specifically at the week from October 20 to 27, there was an inflow of $446 million in new funds, with BlackRock's IBIT alone accounting for $324 million, and its holdings have now exceeded 800,000 BTC.

For traditional financial markets, ETF inflows are the most direct bullish indicator - they are more honest than trends on social media and more genuine than candlestick charts.

More importantly, this round of increase truly carries an “institutional flavor.” Morgan Stanley has opened up BTC and ETH allocation to all of its wealth management clients; JPMorgan has allowed institutional clients to use Bitcoin as collateral for loans.

According to the latest data, the average allocation of cryptocurrency assets by institutions has risen to 5%, reaching a historic high. Moreover, 85% of institutions have stated that they have allocated or plan to allocate cryptocurrency assets.

Although Ethereum ETFs seem to pale in comparison to Bitcoin spot ETFs, they saw a net outflow of $555 million in October, marking the first consecutive net outflow since April of this year, primarily from Fidelity and BlackRock's ETH funds.

But this also seems to be a new signal, indicating that funds are rotating from ETH to BTC and SOL, which have greater room for growth, or perhaps preparing for new ETFs.

A large batch of altcoin ETFs has arrived.

On October 28, the first batch of cryptocurrency ETFs in the United States officially launched, covering three projects: Solana, Litecoin, and Hedera. Bitwise and Grayscale launched the SOL ETF, and LTC and HBAR ETFs from Canary Capital were also approved for trading on Nasdaq.

But this is just the beginning.

According to reports, there are currently 155 types of altcoin ETFs awaiting approval, covering 35 mainstream assets, with a total scale expected to exceed the initial inflows of the first two rounds of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.

If everything is released, the market may face an unprecedented “liquidity shock wave.”

Historically, the launch of the Bitcoin ETF has led to an influx of over $50 billion, while the Ethereum ETF has also brought in an asset increase of $25 billion.

ETFs are not just financial products; they function more like an “entry channel” for capital. When this channel expands from BTC and ETH to altcoins like SOL, XRP, LINK, and AVAX, the entire market's valuation system will be repriced.

Institutional interest in cryptocurrencies is growing stronger.

In addition, ProShares is preparing to launch the CoinDesk 20 ETF, which tracks 20 assets including BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP; REX-Osprey's 21-Asset ETF takes it a step further by allowing holders to earn staking rewards from tokens such as ADA, AVAX, NEAR, SEI, and TAO.

There are 23 Solana ETFs waiting for approval. This intensive layout is almost a public declaration: the risk curve of institutions is extending from Bitcoin to the entire DeFi ecosystem.

From a macro perspective, the potential for this liquidity expansion is enormous. By October 2025, the total market cap of global stablecoins is close to 300 billion USD. Once this “liquidity reserve” is activated by ETFs, it will create a powerful capital multiplier effect. Taking Bitcoin ETFs as an example, every 1 dollar that flows into the ETF can ultimately amplify to several times the market value growth.

If the same logic is applied to copycat ETFs, hundreds of billions of dollars in new capital could drive the entire DeFi ecosystem to prosper again.

The wind of interest rate cuts has once again brought new liquidity.

In addition to ETFs, another factor influencing the market comes from the often-discussed macro level.

On October 29, there is a 98.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The market seems to have anticipated this expectation in advance, leading to a weaker dollar index and a collective strengthening of risk assets, with Bitcoin breaking through $114,900.

What does a rate cut mean? It means that funds need to find new outlets.

In the year 2025, where traditional markets generally lack imagination, crypto became the place that “is still telling stories.”

What’s more interesting is that this round of positive news comes not only from the market but also from policies.

On October 27, the White House nominated Michael Selig as the chairman of the CFTC, a former crypto lawyer known for his friendly disposition; the SEC also updated the ETP creation mechanism, allowing crypto ETFs to conduct in-kind redemptions, greatly simplifying operations.

On the topic of “regulatory friendliness,” the U.S. market has not just loosened its grip but has opened the door wide. The government is no longer suppressing innovation but is trying to allow the crypto industry to “exist in compliance.”

The numbers on the chain are also synchronously verifying all of this.

The total locked value (TVL) in DeFi ( increased by 3.48% in October, reaching 157.5 billion USD. Among them, the Ethereum chain TVL reached 88.6 billion USD, an increase of 4%; Solana rose by 7%; and BSC saw an increase of 15%. This represents not just “capital inflow,” but a return of trust.

The total amount of Bitcoin futures open interest has risen to 53.7 billion USD, and the funding rate is positive, indicating that bulls are dominating the market. Whale wallets are also increasing their positions, with a large holder buying 350 million USD worth of BTC within 5 hours. In the secondary market, Uniswap's monthly trading volume has exceeded 161 billion USD, and Raydium has surpassed 20 billion USD, with the ecosystem's activity continuing to rise.

These on-chain indicators constitute the most hardcore bullish evidence: capital is moving, positions are increasing, and trading is active.

Why are top analysts bullish?

Arthur Hayes: The four-year cycle is dead, the liquidity cycle is eternal.

In a blog post titled “Long Live the King” on Thursday, Arthur Hayes wrote that while some cryptocurrency traders expect Bitcoin to soon reach a cycle peak and crash next year, he believes this time will be different.

His core argument is that the “four-year cycle” of Bitcoin has failed because what truly determines the market is never the “halving”, but rather the global liquidity cycle—especially the resonance of monetary policies between the US dollar and the Chinese yuan.

In the past three bull and bear cycles, it seems that they followed the rhythm of “bull market after halving, four-year cycle,” but that is just the surface. Hayes believes that this rhythm holds because each cycle happens to occur during periods of significant expansion of the dollar or yuan, extremely low interest rates, and global credit easing. For example:

2009–2013: Federal Reserve's unlimited QE, large-scale lending by China;

2013–2017: RMB credit expansion drives the ICO boom;

2017–2021: The “helicopter money” during the Trump and Biden eras led to a flood of liquidity.

When the credit expansion of these two currencies slows down, the bull market of Bitcoin also comes to an end. In other words, Bitcoin is merely a barometer for the global monetary easing.

By 2025, the logic of this “halving-driven” model will completely collapse. This is because the monetary policies of both the US and China have entered a new normal—political pressure demands continued easing, and liquidity will no longer tighten cyclically.

The United States needs to “run a hot economy” to dilute its debt, with Trump pressuring for interest rate cuts and fiscal expansion; China is also releasing credit to combat deflation. Both countries are injecting funds into the market.

So Hayes' conclusion is: “The four-year cycle is dead. The real cycle is the liquidity cycle. As long as the US and China continue to print money, Bitcoin will continue to rise.”

This means that the future of the crypto market is no longer dictated by the “halving” schedule, but rather by the “direction of the US dollar and the Chinese yuan.” He concluded with a phrase: “The king is dead, long live the king” — the old cycle has ended, but a new Bitcoin cycle, driven by liquidity, has just begun.

Raoul Pal: 5.4 Year Cycle Replacing Traditional 4 Year Cycle

Raoul Pal's 5-year cycle theory represents a fundamental reconstruction of the traditional 4-year Bitcoin halving cycle. He believes that the traditional 4-year cycle is not driven by the Bitcoin protocol itself, but rather the result of the past three cycles )2009-2013, 2013-2017, 2017-2021( coinciding perfectly with the global debt refinancing cycle.

The end of these cycles is due to monetary tightening policies, rather than the halving events themselves.

The key to this theoretical shift lies in the structural change in the average maturity of U.S. debt during the 2021-2022 period. In an environment approaching zero interest rates, the U.S. Treasury extended the average weighted maturity of debt from about 4 years to 5.4 years.

This extension not only affects the timeline for debt refinancing, but more importantly, it changes the rhythm of global liquidity release, delaying Bitcoin's cyclical peak from the traditional fourth quarter of 2025 to the second quarter of 2026, which also indicates that the fourth quarter of 2025 will be a recovery market.

According to Raoul Pal, the total global debt has reached approximately $300 trillion, of which about $10 trillion is about to mature ) mainly consisting of U.S. Treasury bonds and corporate bonds (, requiring a massive liquidity injection to avoid a surge in yields. Each trillion dollars of liquidity increase is associated with a 5-10% return in stocks and cryptocurrencies. For cryptocurrencies, $10 trillion in refinancing could inject $2-3 trillion into risk assets, pushing BTC from a low of $60,000 in 2024 to over $200,000 in 2026.

Therefore, Pal's model predicts that the second quarter of 2026 will witness an unprecedented peak in liquidity. When the ISM breaks 60, it will trigger Bitcoin to enter the “banana zone,” with a target price of $200,000 to $450,000.