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The latest released September CPI data shows that the market's originally expected 3.1% actually dropped to 3%, and the core CPI also slowed to 3%. This data not only reflects the cooling trend of inflation but also provides strong support for the Fed's upcoming interest rate cut decision.
Barclays had previously pointed out that only a significant exceedance of CPI data would change interest rate cut expectations, and now the data just confirms the possibility of a rate cut. The market reacted quickly, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October now reaching 98.9%, and the probability for December at 95.3%. The Fed's interest rate cut decision next week is basically certain, which has also driven gold prices up by $20, breaking through the $4080 mark, while the dollar index has dropped significantly by 30 points.
The stability of inflation data means that monetary policy will tend to be more accommodative, and this wave of policy dividends is a rare opportunity. Currently, it may be the ideal window period for positioning in the gold market. As the news of interest rate cuts is further digested and liquidity conditions loosen, the market will usher in a new round of liquidity enhancement. Investors who prepare early may gain more advantages, making it particularly important to seize current investment opportunities.