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1
Looking back to the late autumn of 2021, when Bitcoin reached its historical high of $67,800, my account had a floating profit of over 3.7 million. However, just as everyone was cheering "breaking 100,000 to retire," the anomaly in the RSI indicator caught my attention. Although the price hit a new high, the indicator had dropped 28% from its previous peak, a phenomenon known as "divergence at the top" that was like a wake-up call. Sure enough, the market subsequently plummeted by 53%, and many investors faced liquidation.
After countless failures and reflections, I have summarized two iron rules: a top divergence must retreat, and a bottom divergence must enter. When Dogecoin surged to $0.33 in 2023, the RSI was only 23% of the previous high, and I timely reduced my position, avoiding a 40% drop. In 2024, when PEPE coin formed a golden cross but the indicators were broken, I decisively exited, once again dodging a disaster. Conversely, when Ethereum fell to $1520 last year, although it created a new weekly low, the RSI rebounded to 38%, and the whales continuously accumulated for 16 days, I decisively increased my position. Two months later, Layer2 surged, yielding a doubling of profits.
Practical experience tells me that the 15-minute K-line is used to determine direction, the 2-hour K-line measures intensity, and the daily line locks in the trend. A golden cross needs a second confirmation, while also paying attention to the movements of the exchange's hot wallet. When a top divergence occurs and the net outflow of whales exceeds 4.3 million USDT, it is necessary to liquidate; whereas a bottom divergence combined with a long-short ratio below 0.63 is a good opportunity to build a position.
To remember these lessons, I printed 72 sets of divergence cases and posted them on the wall. Every night, I review them against the RSI trends and set a warning mechanism for when the indicators drop by 20%. Now, I can even close my eyes and sketch the RSI curve of Solana from $12 to $108. This is not an innate talent, but a reflex honed by 8 million in tuition.
Most people struggle in the crypto world, not due to a lack of effort, but because they lack a guiding light. Market opportunities always exist; the key is whether one can summarize patterns from losses and truly find a way out of the fog. Only by mastering the market's secrets can one stand undefeated in this ever-changing field.