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Recently, the heated discussion about the {future}(COAIUSDT) trading on the square has sparked my thoughts. Many people have fallen into a misconception, analyzing this market with the mindset of ordinary traders, which is clearly inappropriate.
Let's delve deeper into this issue. Why do so many people choose to short this cryptocurrency? The answer is simple: everyone recognizes that its actual value is far lower than the current price. However, if you think that simply driving up the price will allow you to make a profit, you might be disappointed. In fact, maintaining a high coin price requires absorbing a large amount of selling pressure, which is usually not handled by the project team itself, but rather executed by professional outsourcing teams or early investors.
This market is essentially a zero-sum game. Regardless of price fluctuations, some people can always profit from it. This is because the coins they hold have almost no cost, and they may have accumulated them when the coin price was only a few cents.
Many people believe that project teams will drive up prices and then sell off and run away, but in reality, for a project with a market value reaching tens of billions, large-scale dumping is impossible. Even if they only sell off coins worth a million dollars, the price could plummet. No one is willing to buy at high prices, and the project team may hold nearly half of the circulating supply.
The truth is that regardless of price fluctuations, strong market makers are acting as the counterparty to retail investors. When the majority are bullish, they go short; when everyone is bearish, they go long. This explains why there is often a significant rebound when a trading platform announces the delisting of a certain cryptocurrency.
The market makers earn money from retail investors cutting their losses and liquidations; this is the essence of a zero-sum game. You might wonder why the price of a coin drops after rising by 50% or 100%; this is because the market makers' goals have been achieved, and they no longer need to maintain the high price.
In this complex Web3 trading environment, understanding the mechanics of the market is more important than simply chasing highs and lows. As participants, we need to keep a clear mind, recognize our position in this zero-sum game, and be aware of the potential risks we may face.