The Crypto Market Has Broken the 4-Year Cycle – When There Are No Rules to Hold On To

The 4-year cycle has long been a “Guiding Star” for crypto investors – a seemingly immutable pattern: halving, bullish, then correction. But this time, everything is different. The market is entering a phase with no rules, no historical reference points to compare or predict. So when we lose the familiar “compass”, what should we do? When there are no clear standards, the probability of a “bull” or “bear” market is 50%. All judgments become fragile, as the market now operates based on emotions, liquidity, and trust – rather than following traditional cyclical models. There is an interesting “indicator” that many veteran investors often mention: If more than 80% of people believe that the bull market is still ongoing, then perhaps the bull market has ended. If more than 80% of people believe that the bull market has concluded, then perhaps the bull market is still existing. The market always moves against the majority. Therefore, instead of following the common emotions, observe the flow of money, the liquidation structure, and the behavior of those who “act silently”. In a world where there are no more rules, the opposite direction is the only remaining rule.