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19:00 Subsequent trading strategy for reference only
Due to various reasons related to tariffs the day before yesterday, we encountered a black swan event, and the drop was deeper than expected. However, I also reminded everyone not to rush into bottom-fishing; it's better to miss out than to take a long position against the trend. Although I didn't know it would drop this much, I understood that we shouldn't long and bottom-fish. I hope we can execute this; knowing is not enough, executing with that knowledge is what matters most.
So the current market, without considering the small-scale five-minute charts, is an overall consolidation state for the 1-4 hour example, everyone can see that, right? Although there are fluctuations of more than a hundred points up and down, there is actually no need to open positions, because from my personal technical analysis, the levels above four hours are all bearish. The various levels below four hours are quite contradictory, and there is a demand for a rebound. Whether it can rebound or not is another matter, so there is no need to open positions; let it repair itself. Trading requires patience; there is no need to open positions that shouldn't be opened, after all, we are here to make money, to earn the part of the market that we can understand.
Then, as shown in the figure, overall judgment is that the upper pressure is in the 3920-40 area, and 3940-60 is also the starting point of the previous surge, which can serve as a reference. The rebound short strategy can focus on this 3940 area with a reasonable defense at 3960. If it does not stabilize above 3940-60, there won't be much room. Step by step. The low long strategy is to make a rebound order for a second bottom probe, first considering the first one around 3540 (reasonable defense just below 3540) and the second one around 3380-3420 (reasonable defense just below 3420). This area depends on the current market conditions, as it is a live area that was the starting point of the previous surge and also a relatively strong support. After the break, there will be more space below. Similarly, step by step.
Then Bitcoin has been relatively strong, so its rebound may be quite powerful. The first resistance shown in the diagram above is between 11W3800 and 11W4000, and the second resistance is around 11W6800. If it doesn't break through, there won't be more room for movement. The ideal layout for entering a short position is at the second resistance, but it's uncertain whether an opportunity will arise. You can flexibly adjust your position based on the market, and a reasonable defense is to maintain 11W7, leaving about ten thousand points of room below. The long position would be for a rebound during the second bottom test as shown in the diagram, around 10W6800 to 10W8200, and the second is around 100600-102000. The vacuum area is quite large, so act flexibly according to the market, control your position, and don't get stuck on specific price points. That can be very difficult; one must respect the market. In this market, retail investors are nothing.
The above is just a general trend and area; trades at the 5-minute and 15-minute levels are not within this consideration. In a consolidation state, as long as you set a stop loss and don't get too greedy, any approach will work.
Litecoin can focus on shorting directly around 105, its structural pattern is feasible, and in the long run, we can see 70 and below. If there are spikes, they are aggressive.
Trading needs to be flexible and adaptable according to the market.