Economists: If July's non-farm payrolls are significantly revised down, US stocks will exhibit a V-shaped trend during the day.

On September 5, TradingKey senior economist Jason Tang stated that considering the trend of mutual offsets among various industries, the non-farm employment data for August is unlikely to rise or fall significantly. We believe that the main risk of this non-farm employment report to the U.S. financial markets lies not in the August data itself, but in whether the July data faces a significant downward revision. If the July data is substantially revised downwards, we expect the U.S. stock market to experience a significant drop, followed by a rebound on the same day. Specifically, a substantial downward revision would indicate weakness in the labor market, prompting investors to engage in an "economic slowdown trade." This could lead to U.S. stock index futures softening in pre-market trading, with declines after the U.S. stock market opens. Subsequently, the "economic slowdown trade" may shift to a "rate cut trade," ultimately driving U.S. stocks to rebound from intraday lows.