Market Balance After Bitcoin Halving: Mining Revenue Decline, Increase in Large Holding Addresses

Bitcoin completed its 4th Halving on April 20, with the block reward reduced to 3.125 BTC. This Halving has a direct impact on Mining, causing a significant drop in miner income in the short term. The market generally expects that the increase in Bitcoin’s scarcity will drive prices up, but the reality is that since the Halving, Bitcoin has remained in a high-level consolidation, with a slight price decrease of 3.87%, which puts enormous pressure on miners and also exposes some short-term investors to losses.

Each halving is essentially a rebalancing process of market supply and demand. During this process, market capital flow, mining pressure, and demand-side conditions are all worth paying attention to. After a comprehensive analysis of the current market data, it is found that:

1. Since March, the proportion of Bitcoin loss chips has risen from 1.28% to 15.18%. The average SOPR index of short-term investors after the Halving is 0.99972, reflecting that many short-term investors are losing due to the expectations of the Halving.

2. After the Halving, the on-chain token circulation rate decreased by 23%, with more chips in accumulation state. Since the beginning of this year, the number of chips held for 1-3 months, 3-6 months, and 3-5 years has significantly increased; the number of Addresses with balances between 100-1000 BTC and 1000-10000 BTC has increased by more than 1.3%.

3. After the Halving, miners face significant revenue pressure. Based on the current coin price and high electricity costs, the shutdown price reaches $55,000, a substantial increase from last year’s minimum shutdown price of $14,300 on August 1.

4. Currently, the total daily Mining revenue is approximately $26.4871 million, a decrease of 51.63% compared to the average revenue of $54.7623 million before the Halving. The current daily transaction fees are about $2.28 million, a decrease of 34% compared to the average value before the Halving.

5. Assuming that the transaction fee income remains unchanged, to reach the average daily income level before the Halving, the coin price needs to rise to $94,489.82, an increase of 51.63% compared to the current price.

6. Assuming the coin price remains unchanged, to reach the average daily income level before the Halving, the daily transaction count needs to increase to 1,673,700 times, which is a 202.49% rise compared to the average after the Halving; or each transaction fee needs to reach 0.00080317 BTC, which is a 206.08% rise compared to the average after the Halving.

7. The strong demand for Runes during its initial launch brought huge profits to miners, contributing 881 BTC in transaction fees on the first day.

After the halving, the proportion of loss-making chips rose to 15%, and the number of large holding addresses significantly increased.

The market generally expects the price of Bitcoin to rise significantly after the halving. Historical data shows that in the year following the last three halvings, the price increases of Bitcoin were 8069.11%, 256.85%, and 478.10%, respectively.

However, in the short term, the impact of the reduction on prices is relatively slow. In the 17 days following the last three reductions, the price of Bitcoin rose by 9.73%, 0.97%, and 6.98%, respectively. Since the latest reduction, Bitcoin has remained in a high consolidation, currently at about $62,400, with a decline of 3.87% over the past 17 days.

The underperformance of prices has led to a significant increase in the proportion of loss-making coins. Since the Halving, the price of Bitcoin has fluctuated between $64,900 and $62,400, with the proportion of loss-making coins rising from 10.95% to 15.18%. In fact, this trend began in March. Since March, the price of Bitcoin has been consolidating above $62,500, while the proportion of loss-making coins has continuously risen from 1.28%, reflecting that some short-term investors have incurred losses due to Halving expectations.

The SOPR index for short-term investors also confirms this. An index less than 1 indicates that investors holding coins for more than 1 hour but less than 155 days are generally at a loss. Currently, the index is at 1.0022, very close to 1, and the average after the Halving is 0.99972, indicating that short-term investors are generally in a state of loss recently.

At the same time, the speed of on-chain chip circulation has significantly slowed down. The current circulation rate (, with a 7-day average of ), is 0.01044, which is a decrease of nearly 23% compared to the day of Halving and a decrease of nearly 33% since the beginning of the year, showing a significant decline.

The rapid decline in circulation velocity may indicate that more chips are in the accumulation process. From a time period perspective, since the beginning of this year, the number of chips held for 1-3 months, 3-6 months, and 3-5 years has significantly increased. In particular, the proportion of chips held for 1-3 months has increased by 7.14 percentage points this year and by 2.44 percentage points after the Halving, indicating a trend of holding periods shifting from short-term to medium- to long-term accumulation.

From the perspective of addresses with different balances, since the beginning of this year, the number of addresses marked as Entities with balances between 100-1000 BTC and 1000-10000 BTC has significantly increased, rising by 1.35% and 1.39% respectively, and this trend continues after the Halving. Among all addresses, the number of addresses with balances between 1000-10000 BTC has increased by 1.07%. These data indicate that the number of large holders is on the rise, and chips are being concentrated.

After the Halving, the hashrate decreased by over 7%, and daily Mining income fell to 26.49 million dollars.

After the Bitcoin Halving, the overall network hashrate ( has significantly decreased in the past 7 days with an average of ). The current hashrate is 582.2 EH/s, a decrease of 7.43% compared to the day of the Halving. The decline in hashrate exceeds the decline in coin price, which may indicate that some miners are shutting down their mining machines to maintain profits.

From the shutdown prices of different mining machines, miners are currently facing significant revenue pressure. Based on a coin price of 62315.29 USD, if the mining machine is located in a low electricity cost area (0.07 USD/kWh ), there are 31 models of mining machines whose shutdown prices are lower than the current coin price and can still be profitable. Among them, the Antminer S21 Pro has the lowest shutdown price at 32,200 USD, with a daily net revenue of 5.52 USD. Last August, the lowest shutdown price was still at 14,300 USD.

If the mining machine is located in a high electricity cost area ( 0.12 USD/kWh ), only 3 models of mining machines can still be profitable, namely Antminer S21Pro, S21 Hyd, and S21, with a shutdown price of over 55,200 USD.

If the market conditions do not improve, the cost of electricity will become a key factor determining the survival of miners. If the market does improve, to what extent does it need to improve for the pressure on miners to be alleviated?

Assuming electricity prices remain low, when the coin price rises to $80,000, the number of profitable mining machines will reach 45 types, with the lowest shutdown price still being Ant S21Pro, and the highest daily net profit being Shama M63S(390T), reaching $12.30. When the coin price rises to $100,000, the number of profitable mining machines will reach 66 types, with the lowest shutdown price still being Ant S21Pro, and the highest daily net profit being Shama M63S(390T), reaching $18.41. As the coin price rises, the variety of mining machines available to miners significantly increases, allowing for diversified configurations.

After the Halving, mining revenue has plummeted. The current total daily mining income is approximately 26.4871 million USD, a decrease of 51.63% compared to the average daily income of 54.7623 million USD before the Halving. It is worth noting that on the day of the Halving, due to the launch of the Runes protocol, the mining income that day was approximately 107 million USD, which is 95.06% higher than the average daily income before the Halving.

The strong rise in on-chain demand can offset the losses caused by the halving for miners through transaction fees. On the day Runes was launched, the transaction fees reached $80.58 million, accounting for 75% of the total revenue. However, as the enthusiasm for Runes cooled and trading volume declined, the current daily transaction fees are about $2.28 million, a 34% decrease from the average before the halving.

Miners’ Mining Income ( USD ) = ( Block Reward + Transaction Fees ) * Coin Price, so the reduction in miners’ income due to Halving can be compensated in two direct ways: first, assuming transaction fee income remains unchanged, the Coin Price needs to rise significantly; second, assuming the Coin Price remains relatively stable, the fee income needs to continue rising significantly. This is a static and simplified analysis, intended to demonstrate the potential impact of Bitcoin Halving on Coin Price and transactions.

Based on the average daily mining income of 54.76 million USD before the Halving, the average daily block count after the Halving is 139 blocks, with an average block reward of 434.23 BTC, an average transaction fee of 0.0002624 BTC per transaction, and an average total of 553,328.19 transactions per day calculated:

Assuming the transaction fee income remains unchanged, to reach the average daily income level before the Halving, the coin price needs to reach 94489.82 USD, an increase of 51.63% compared to the current price.

Assuming the coin price remains unchanged and the transaction fees remain constant, to reach the average daily income level before the Halving, the daily transaction count needs to reach 1.6737 million times, which is a rise of 202.49% compared to the average after the Halving.

Assuming the coin price remains unchanged and the number of transactions remains the same, to reach the average daily income level before the Halving, the average transaction fee needs to reach 0.00080317 BTC, an increase of 206.08% compared to the average after the Halving.

Bitcoin demand side remains weak, TVL and multiple data points of Runes decline

Estimating the scale of the impact on mining after the Halving is very important; unprofitable miners will threaten the underlying security of the blockchain. Aside from the coin price, transaction fees and transaction counts directly reflect demand, so what is the current demand situation for Bitcoin?

From the perspective of Runes, the number of related transactions has decreased from the initial 463,600 to the current 79,400, and the fees generated have fallen from 881 BTC to the current 4 BTC. The strong demand during the early days of Runes indeed brought huge profits to miners. The current question is how to maintain the sustainability of demand for Runes and other Bitcoin projects.

In addition, the DeFi imagination brought by Bitcoin’s Layer 2 and Runes may stimulate more usage demand. Currently, the TVL on the Bitcoin chain has reached $1.208 billion, rising 296% this year and has remained stable since the halving. Among them, except for the Lightning Network, the recently launched AINN Layer 2 has performed well, with a current TVL of $590 million, becoming a major application in the Bitcoin ecosystem. In addition, applications such as BiFi, Maya Protocol, and BoringDAO have also achieved rapid growth in TVL this year.

![BTC Halving后的动态平衡：Mining收入骤降，关机价来到5.5万美元，大额持币者快