#ETH Rekt Capital's analysis is based on the historical patterns of Bitcoin halving. By comparing past Bitcoin trends after halvings, he found that BTC usually reaches its cycle peak 518 to 550 days post-halving (both the 2016 and 2020 cycles followed this pattern). According to this model, the current market has passed approximately 88% of the typical post-halving cycle and is entering the later stage. Core Prediction: If history repeats itself, this bull run's peak may occur between late September and mid-October 2025. Beware of the risk of excessive cycle extension While some investors expect this Bitcoin bull market cycle to extend into 2026, Rekt Capital warns that deviating too far from historical patterns poses risks: • “The danger is that if we continually push our targets back (delay take profit), we may ultimately miss the opportunity to sell at the bull market peak.” • Although past cycles experienced slight extensions of about 30 days, relying on this assumption to delay profit-taking is risky. Unique aspects of the current cycle: Lengthy accumulation period Rekt Capital emphasizes that a significant feature of this Bitcoin post-halving market is that it has experienced the longest 'reaccumulation period' in history. Since the halving in April 2024, BTC has been consolidating below its historical high for eight months. Subsequent trends and risk warnings Currently, the king of cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, is still consolidating below its historical high. Analysts point out: • Similar consolidation phases have occurred in the 2017 and 2021 cycles (manifesting as 'price discovery corrections' or momentum slowing), often followed by a surge towards the final peak. • However, as the cycle matures, the risk-reward ratio begins to deteriorate: potential upside space narrows, while the downside risk of a pullback after the bull market peaks (historical declines of 60-70%) increases. • Investors should manage the risks of crypto assets and be prepared for high volatility markets. Key advice for investors • Prioritize historical patterns, viewing any price increases after the predicted time window (late September to mid-October) as 'extra bonuses' rather than guarantees. • Focus on take profit strategies to protect existing profits. • Beware of 'new cycle narratives' that lack historical basis disrupting your strategy. Gate Latest Market: As of the time of writing, BTC has steadily risen over the past week, currently trading slightly above $108,840, with a slight 24-hour decline of 0.93%.