Market Analysis: Easing Geopolitical Tensions and Central Bank Stance Propel Risk Assets to Rise

Macroeconomic Environment

Recently, the macroeconomic environment has shown a positive shift. The achievement of a ceasefire agreement in the Middle East has significantly eased geopolitical tensions, boosting market risk appetite. Crude oil prices have fallen back to pre-conflict levels, and gold briefly dipped below the 3300 USD mark.

Meanwhile, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve released key signals during the congressional hearing. Although he did not explicitly rule out the possibility of a rate cut in July, he indicated that more data is needed to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation, suggesting that it is more likely to wait until the September meeting to decide on a policy shift. He stated that if inflationary pressures are controlled, there would be a “sooner rather than later” rate cut, but the current strong economy does not require hasty action. He also pointed out that the uncertainty surrounding tariffs is the main reason for delaying the rate cut.

The market interpreted this statement as dovish, coupled with the easing of geopolitical risks, which drove a significant rise in US stocks. The Nasdaq 100 reached a historic high, the Dow surged 500 points in a single day, and US Treasury yields fell in tandem with the dollar. It is noteworthy that in response to pressure for interest rate cuts, the Federal Reserve Chairman reiterated the independence of monetary policy, emphasizing that decisions are based solely on economic data.

Cryptocurrency Market

Bitcoin broke through $106,000 under macro favorable conditions, but its performance has been relatively restrained. Some analysts believe that the 13% rise in Bitcoin since the beginning of the year contrasts with over $63 billion in capital inflows, reflecting market caution towards structural changes.

Currently, the concentration of chips within a 5% range of the Bitcoin spot price has reached 14.5%. Analysts point out that once the concentration breaks through 15%, the market may experience significant fluctuations. From a technical analysis perspective, several analysts have provided similar predictions for Bitcoin’s short-term trend, suggesting that the price may consolidate at current levels. If it breaks through $107,000, it may aim for $110,000; otherwise, it may retreat below $102,000.

Regarding Ethereum, a trading platform experienced a large-scale fund withdrawal on June 23, with over 4,000 BTC and 61,000 ETH flowing out of the platform. This indicates that trader sentiment may be shifting from short-term speculation to a long-term holding strategy. Some analysts point out that as the capital rotation pattern shifts from Bitcoin to Ethereum, ETH may see significant rise, with its profit supply ratio being far lower than that of Bitcoin, indicating a potential catch-up.

However, some analysts hold a different view, believing that the ETH price has failed to break the $3000 mark for over 20 consecutive weeks, which has damaged market confidence and faces fierce competition from other public chains, making it difficult to return to above $3000 in the short term.

Market Highlights

In the market, some emerging tokens have attracted the attention of investors. For example, a meme coin called $solami saw its market cap rapidly reach $12 million before falling back to $5.3 million. Another project named $ACID quickly reached a market cap of $18 million with its concept of “cross-Web2 and Web3 smart agents.”

Traditional financial institutions are accelerating their layout in the crypto field. A US stock company announced the acquisition of a certain cryptocurrency as a strategic reserve through $500 million in convertible bonds, driving its stock price to surge by 150% in a single day. In the Hong Kong market, a Chinese-funded brokerage obtained a comprehensive virtual asset license, becoming the first Chinese-funded brokerage to provide trading services for mainstream coins, with the news stimulating its Hong Kong stock price to reach an intraday increase of over 100%.

Market Data

As of June 25, 12:00 HKT, the main cryptocurrency market data is as follows:

• Bitcoin: $106,202 (Year-to-date +13.61%), Daily Spot Trading Volume $27.86 billion
• Ethereum: $2,429.84 (Year-to-date -27.09%), Daily Spot Trading Volume $15.253 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 48 (Neutral)
• Market Share: BTC 64.6%, ETH 9.0%
• 24-hour BTC long to short ratio: 1.0751
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 79,735 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of 187 million USD.

Future Outlook

The market is focused on the testimony of the Federal Reserve Chairman before the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee regarding the semi-annual monetary policy report. In addition, several cryptocurrency projects will be conducting token unlocks in the near future, which may have a certain impact on the market.

Overall, the improvement of the macro environment and the continuous inflow of funds into the cryptocurrency market provide support for the market, but investors still need to pay attention to potential risk factors and market volatility.