Financial markets shift towards risk appetite, Bitcoin becomes the new favorite of institutions.

On June 25, QCP released its daily market observation stating that "despite Israel resuming limited airstrikes just hours after a temporary ceasefire, the financial markets were almost unaffected by fluctuations. Instead of exhibiting a ‘risk-off mode’, the market fully shifted towards ‘risk appetite’—the Nasdaq 100 index reached a historic high, and the S&P 500 index was less than 1% away from its all-time closing high in February 2020. Meanwhile, oil prices have completely retreated to levels before the outbreak of the conflict, further boosting the change in market sentiment. Among the S&P 500 constituents, Coinbase (COIN) soared 12% on Tuesday, closing at $344.94, marking its highest level in over six months.

On the other hand, interest in Bitcoin among institutions continues to rise. Recently, a fund purchased $386 million worth of Bitcoin. This is a clear strategy of treating Bitcoin as a “corporate financial reserve asset.” Since the beginning of June, the number of companies incorporating Bitcoin into their balance sheets has nearly doubled, with over 240 companies now collectively holding 3.45 million BTC. If this trend continues, Bitcoin is expected to not only serve as a macro hedging tool comparable to gold but may even compete in total market capitalization.

In this environment where macro, military, and monetary forces intersect, traditional risk premiums are shifting from “hedging tools” to “market benchmark assumptions.” The market’s ability to withstand geopolitical fluctuations is undergoing an unprecedented test.