QCP: Geopolitical tensions intensify market Fluctuation, the future direction faces a critical test.

On June 23, QCP released its daily market observation, saying, "Bitcoin briefly fell below the $100,000 mark last week, hitting a low of $98,200, the lowest since breaking the $100,000 psychological mark on May 8. The sell-off spilled over major altcoins as Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, a move that could seriously disrupt global crude oil shipments. However, Bitcoin regained its foothold above $100,000 this morning, suggesting that the weekend’s pullback was more driven by macro factors. While waiting for stock index futures to open, investors view crypto assets as a safe-haven tool. Due to the low liquidity of the market, the market volatility was amplified, and the overall market liquidation amount exceeded $1 billion. Despite Iran’s vowed retaliatory measures, the market does not seem to expect a significant escalation at the moment. Geopolitical “mediation behind the scenes” seems to be moderating. While the skew of put options remained elevated until September, the strong rally in cash prices and the compression of front-end volatility suggest that investors are not currently viewing this as a systemic risk contagion event. This market sentiment is also reflected in traditional assets. U.S. stock futures, crude oil and gold reacted early on the news, but quickly retreated to Friday’s levels. This suggests that investors are more likely to interpret the current situation as a regional conflict than a global crisis. However, after experiencing a centralized liquidation of leveraged longs, Bitcoin is still consolidating around $100,000. This makes the next few trading days especially critical. Against the backdrop of ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, digital assets remain at a crossroads between a “rebound in risk appetite” and a “defensive hedging.”