Bitcoin stable above $104,000 - Traders focus on historically bullish second half | CoinDesk JAPAN

• The cryptocurrency market on the 19th fell due to a hawkish macroeconomic outlook and concerns over global trade tensions.
• Bitcoin and Ethereum have slightly declined, with Bitcoin trading around 104,700 Dollar and Ethereum just below 2,860 Dollar.
• The approval of the stablecoin framework by the U.S. Senate suggests a more regulation-friendly environment for cryptocurrencies.

On the 19th, the cryptocurrency market turned bearish due to a hawkish macroeconomic outlook, the impending deadline for mutual tariffs, and a decrease in volatility. Bitcoin (BTC) traded around $104,700 during Asian hours, down 1.2% over the past 24 hours, while Ethereum (ETH) traded slightly below $2,860, down 1.8% in a day.

This soft price movement aligns with broader macroeconomic uncertainties following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (FRB) decision to keep interest rates unchanged at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on the 18th, while maintaining a cautious and inflation-sensitive stance.

Seasonality starts to appear

The historically sluggish cryptocurrency market from June to July has entered a state of calm as Bitcoin’s short-term implied volatility has dropped below 40%, with the risk premium due to recent geopolitical tensions disappearing. This was pointed out by Singapore-based QCP Capital in a market broadcast on the 19th.

The open interest for Bitcoin and Ethereum perpetual futures is flat, and the options market has turned negative, with put options trading at a higher price than call options. This is a sign that traders are hedging against a short-term decline.

“There has been no change in the technical situation, and upward pressure is being maintained,” said Joel Kruger, a strategist at LMAX Group, in an email to CoinDesk. “Bitcoin is maintaining a bullish price movement, and if it breaks through the recent high range, it could aim for $145,000.”

Ethereum has not yet reached its 2021 highs, but Kruger added that it is gaining momentum. “If it breaks through $2900, the possibility of reaching $3400 comes into view,” he stated.

U.S. Senate Passes Stablecoin Bill

One of the bright factors for cryptocurrencies is the passage of the stablecoin framework by the U.S. Senate, adding a new element to a global environment that is becoming more regulation-friendly. This has strengthened the confidence of a broader range of institutional investors.

“Globally, there is a continuous progress that promises a clearer and more friendly regulatory environment for the adoption of crypto assets by institutional investors,” Mr. Kruger added.

Nevertheless, the short-term situation remains cautious. Due to the flow from the end-of-month options expiration, systematic rebalancing, and the lack of new catalysts, Bitcoin may stay in the range of 102,000 Dollar to 108,000 Dollar for the time being.

However, the second half of the year is historically strong for cryptocurrencies, so some desks are already looking ahead. Mr. Kruger stated, “The worst may be behind us,” and added, “The next upward phase could catch many off guard.”

[Recommended Reading] What is Bitcoin

Bitcoin Purchase

Bitcoin Exchange