METAPLANET'S mNAV IS HERE TO STAY🔥

Seeing the "ETF demand" argument pop up against Metaplanet is a HILARIOUS example of history repeating itself.

Let's dismantle it and justify a GALACTIC-level premium for Metaplanet:

Reflexive Accretion Loop:

Share price ≈ ¥1,800 vs embedded BTC-NAV ≈ ¥280 → 6-7× mNAV.

Every ¥1 issued above NAV buys more BTC, nudges NAV up, and validates an even bigger premium.

Positive feedback on steroids.

“555 Million” Moving-Strike Warrants

3 tranches (#20-22) equal 92 % of float.

Strike resets to 100/101/102 % of 3-day VWAP, harvesting upside instead of dumping discounted shares.

Max raise ≈ ¥770 B (≈ US $4.9 B) earmarked 100 % for Bitcoin.

Translation: the premium literally finances itself.

Zero-Cost Yen Debt

Sub-1 % bank lines + zero-coupon converts.

Infinite carry when BTC outpaces Japan’s 30-year yield curve (read: forever).

Float Hostage Clauses

Management can suspend warrant exercise for five trading days and execute two-week buy-backs.

Supply elasticity → negative. Shorts get sautéed; upward pressure stays unrelieved.

No ETF? Premium Lives.

ETF Arrives? Premium Survives.

Once a spot ETF lists, it’ll share the 20 % cap-gains lane but won’t offer leverage, convertibles, or warrant alchemy.

Institutional traders still reach for the higher-beta equity wrapper.

Narrative & Liquidity Gravity

“Japan’s Strategy” meme dominates headlines; daily volume rivals U.S. mid-caps.

Algorithms chase the story, retail chases the algos, and premium becomes self-fulfilling prophecy.

Carry-Trade Candy & Corporate Experiments

Firms can pledge 3350.T as collateral at 0 % margin, recycle yen into higher-yield plays, and never touch crypto rails.

Meanwhile Metaplanet teases Lightning hotels, sovereign mining JVs, and a 210 K-BTC war chest by 2027 - optionalities ETFs simply cannot print.

The bottom line is that Metaplanet isn’t mis-priced... it’s structurally over-capitalized by design.

High mNAV is the product, not a side-effect.

Until Japan abolishes tax arbitrage and outlaws financial reflexivity (good luck), expect the premium to continue to LEVITATE.

Fuelled by cheap yen, reset-on-the-fly warrants, and a retail crowd that wants Bitcoin exposure without the tax guillotine.

Welcome to the Rising-Sun reflexivity loop.

This is going to last a long time.