The Federal Reserve FOMC decision exploded: Interest Rate remains unchanged, but the expectation of a rate cut in 2025 is completely doomed?

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The results of the FOMC meeting from The Federal Reserve (FED) early this morning are out — it's the same familiar script: the Intrerest Rate remains unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%, but the dot plot has thrown a bucket of cold water on the market. The originally expected two rate cuts within the year have been slashed down to just one. Want to rely on easing to pump the market in 2025? Wake up, Powell this old fox has no intention of feeding the market sugar!
Core Results: The hawks remain steady, interest rate cut expectations halved.
Interest Rate Decision: For the third consecutive time, maintaining the range of 4.25%-4.5%, in line with expectations but without any surprises.
Dot Matrix Explosion: The expectation for interest rate cuts in 2025 has shrunk from 50 basis points (twice) to 25 basis points (once), while the script for a 75 basis point cut in 2026 remains unchanged. What's more severe is that among the 19 committee members, 11 believe there will be at most one cut this year, and 8 have even stated "not a single cut."
Economic Forecast: GDP growth rate revised down from 1.7% to 1.4%, while inflation expectations have been raised—core PCE skyrocketed from 2.8% to 3.1%, clearly indicating that the risk of stagflation cannot be suppressed.
Market Reaction: The US Dollar Index surged 0.8% instantly, and BTC responded by falling below $61,000.
Powell's press conference: tough talk all the way, but with hidden secrets.
This old man has a hawkish face throughout, but upon closer examination, there are three key pieces of information:
"Not in a hurry to cut interest rates": The original statement is "The policy has moderately restricted, but inflation is still high", which translates to "Don’t dream, retail investors."
"Tariffs are an inflation bomb": directly naming Trump's tariff policy, stating that once inventory is depleted, inflation may explode again.
"The labor market is still tight": the unemployment rate is stuck at 4.2%, non-farm data exceeded expectations, interest rate cut? No excuses.
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Impact on the crypto circle: Liquidity expectations have collapsed, but don't panic!
Short-term bearish: Delayed interest rate cuts = tightening dollar liquidity, especially impacting altcoins. High beta assets like XRP and SOL may drop another 10%-15%.
Long-term game:
ETF Hedging: If the Grayscale XRP ETF is approved (Bitwise CEO hints at a Q3 submission), it could alleviate some liquidity pressure.
Technical support: The weekly MA200 for BTC ($58,000) is the line of life and death. If it breaks, you must stop-loss; if it holds, it's an opportunity to increase your position.
Black Swan Betting: If the unemployment rate suddenly spikes to 4.5% in September, interest rate cut expectations may reverse, making it more cost-effective to arrange options in advance.
Operation Guide: Don't be cannon fodder, enter the arena with a knife.
Position Control: Spot holdings should not exceed 50%, leaving enough USDT for right-side signals.
Hedging strategy: Buy BTC quarterly contracts + short XRP/USDT to hedge systemic risk
Event-driven: Keep a close eye on the July CPI data and the August non-farm payroll, as these two data points can directly determine whether there will be a rate cut in September.
After the Federal Reserve (FED) decision, the on-chain reserves of the stablecoin USDC surged by 2 billion dollars, and smart money has started to buy the dip.
Remember, a bull market dies on consensus and is born out of despair—right now, the panicking retail investors are the fuel for the rise in the second half of the year. #BTC