Morning Outlook

A trend analysis tool
Key range: $106,000-$109,000

Technical signals:
1. Short-term momentum: The 4-hour chart shows that the price is above the EMA50 moving average ($107,200), but the RSI (65) is close to the overbought zone, so caution is needed for potential pullback pressure.
2. Resistance and Support:
- Upper resistance: $108,000 psychological level
- Support below: $107,200 (four-hour midline), $106,000 (daily dynamic defense line).
Driving factors:
- Positive policy: The U.S. "GENIUS Act" strengthens the regulatory framework, leading to continuous inflow of institutional funds (such as MicroStrategy increasing its holdings by 10,100 BTC).
- Geopolitical risk: If the situation in Iran escalates, it may increase demand for safe-haven assets, but the current market sentiment is neutral.

Operating Strategy:
- Long: If it can hold above $108,000, you can enter a small long position, with a stop loss at $107,500 and a target of $109,000.
- Short: If it stabilizes around $106,000 after a drop, you can short, with a stop loss at $106,500 and a target of $105,500.

Analysis of the dual handle trend
Key range: $2,500-$2,650

Technical signals:
1. Short-term momentum: The EMA20 moving average on the 4-hour chart ($2,610) provides support, but the shortening of the MACD green bars indicates a weakening of bearish momentum.
2. Resistance and Support:
- Resistance above: $2,650,
- Support below: $2,530 (lower bound of the ascending channel), $2,500 (liquidity zone).

Driving factors:
After the Pectra upgrade, Layer 2 performance has improved, driving institutional capital inflows (BlackRock ETHEA saw a daily inflow of $52.7 million).

Operating Strategy:
- Long: Go long if it breaks $2,650, stop loss at $2,620, target at $2,735.
- Short: If it drops below $2,530 with increased volume, a short position can be taken, with a stop loss at $2,550 and a target of $2,480.

Comprehensive Strategy

- BTC: Pay attention to the validity of the breakthrough at $108,000. If it stabilizes, it will aim for $109,000; if it retraces and stabilizes around $106,000, it can be seen as a buying opportunity.
- ETH: Maintain range trading before breaking through $2,650; if it falls below $2,530, be cautious of a short-term pullback to $2,480.