Under the geopolitical situation, Bitcoin shows resilience as institutions increase their holdings, supporting the $100,000 threshold.

[Chain News] On June 16, Singapore’s crypto investment firm QCP Capital stated that Bitcoin has shown resilience amid geopolitical tensions, rebounding from a weekly low of $102,800 triggered by the Iran-Israel conflict to above $107,000, with the decline narrowing from 8% during similar events in April 2024 to 3%. Continued accumulation by institutions has become a key support factor—Metaplanet and MicroStrategy are buying the dips, spot ETFs have seen net inflows for seven consecutive weeks, and the psychological barrier of $100,000 has not been effectively breached.

From a broader perspective, in the face of rising geopolitical risks, the market has behaved unusually calmly. The implied volatility of Bitcoin remains below 40, while the volatility index (VIX) hovers around 20. Given the current backdrop, both levels are at historical lows. U.S. treasuries and some Asian government bonds have recorded inflows, indicating that the market has not fully shifted to a risk-off mode. However, caution remains. A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz or direct military intervention by the U.S. could trigger a spike in oil prices and turmoil in risk assets. Ironically, some believe that these risks themselves could structurally benefit Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s current trading price is down less than 6% from its historical high, and recent price movements further reinforce this view: Bitcoin adoption is being driven by macro dislocations, a heavier sovereign debt burden, and geopolitical vulnerabilities.