Market Analysis on June 12, 2025

Technical analysis:
The current technical structure of Bitcoin shows short-term weakness, having lost the key support level of $106,000 and breaking below an important upward trend line. From a time frame perspective, the relative strength index (RSI) on the 30-minute and 4-hour charts has declined to around 37, and the moving average convergence divergence indicator (MACD) also shows bearish signals. It is noteworthy that on the daily level, it has broken below the 20/50/100-day exponential moving averages, further confirming short-term downward pressure.

Macroeconomic Environment Assessment:
The ongoing tensions in the Middle East have had a significant impact on the sentiment towards risk assets, leading to a continuous outflow of funds from the cryptocurrency market. In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has fallen below the $103,000 mark, with substantial price fluctuations throughout the day. The market sentiment indicator, Bitcoin Advanced Sentiment Index, has dropped to 46%, below neutral levels, indicating insufficient buying power and an overall cooling phase in market sentiment.

Derivatives Market Status:
Today, approximately $3 billion worth of Bitcoin options contracts are set to expire, with the largest concentration around the $107,000 area, showing clear divergence in the market. If the price continues to drop and breaks below the $103,000 support, it may trigger large-scale long liquidations and exacerbate the downward trend; conversely, if the price rebounds to the $105,000-$107,000 range, it could also trigger short liquidations. Currently, there is intense competition between long and short forces in the market.

Market Outlook:
Currently, Bitcoin is mainly showing a downward trend, but there is still significant structural support in the range of $103,000 to $105,000. In the short term, the market is highly speculative, and investors are advised to closely monitor technical indicator signals and flexibly adjust their trading strategies. If an effective rebound occurs after a pullback and breaks through key resistance levels, it may initiate a new round of mid-term upward movement; otherwise, the price may continue to search for lower support levels.

At this point in time, it is advisable for investors to remain vigilant and wait for clearer market direction signals before making decisions.