Comprehensive Market Analysis and Forecast (June 11, 2025 00:01 - June 12, 2025 00:01)

1. The trend of U.S. stocks and macro sentiment

- Latest performance: As of the close of trading on June 10, the three major U.S. stock indexes were mixed, with the S&P 500 edging up 0.33% to 6,025.50, the Nasdaq up 0.35%, and the Dow inching down 0.03%. The focus is on the upcoming US CPI data for May (expected to be 2.5% YoY) and the progress of the US-China trade talks.
- Key Drivers:
- Inflation expectations: If the CPI exceeds expectations, it may delay the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations (the current market expects only a 44 basis point cut this year), which could suppress risk assets in the short term; if the data is mild, it may boost tech stocks.
- Policy Game: The "Genius Act" (stablecoin regulatory framework) strongly promoted by the Trump administration may pass the Senate vote this week, and if implemented, it could stimulate liquidity in the cryptocurrency market.

U.S. stock sentiment: Neutral to bullish (60% bullish, 40% bearish), tech stocks (such as NVIDIA and Microsoft) will benefit in the short term from AI and computing power demand.

2. Crypto whale trends and on-chain data

- Whale Activity:
- Accumulation signal: The listed company Oblong raised $7.5 million to invest in the Bittensor ecosystem (to purchase TAO tokens), and The Blockchain Group plans to increase its capital by 300 million euros to expand its Bitcoin reserves.
- Reduction risk: Some whales (like Spoofy) have recently reduced their Bitcoin holdings, which may be a signal of a short-term pullback.
- Exchange Dynamics: Bitcoin ETF holdings continue to grow (total holdings of 1.184 million BTC), but the exchange's ETH inventory has declined to a historical low, indicating a long-term accumulation trend.

Crypto sentiment: Cautiously bullish (55% bullish, 45% bearish), with short-term focus on the breakout direction of the $103,700-$106,000 fluctuation range.

3. Celebrity Effect and Market Narrative

- Policy Favorable: Nasdaq applies to add tokens such as XRP, SOL, ADA to the crypto index, promoting expectations for institutional allocation.
- Regulatory risk: The U.S. Senate is about to review the nomination of the CFTC chairman, and if policies tighten, it may suppress the DeFi sector.
- Traffic Game: If the stablecoin bill is passed, it may trigger short-term FOMO sentiments, but high valuations should still be approached with caution.

4. European Market and Blockchain Sector Interaction

- European markets: The Stoxx 600 index fluctuated narrowly (-0.1%), technology stocks rose moderately, but defensive sectors were under pressure.
- Blockchain Concept: The A-share blockchain sector fell by 1.27%, but individual stocks such as China Electric Power and Zhongke Shuguang hit the daily limit, indicating internal differentiation.

European market sentiment: Neutral (50% bullish, 50% bearish), trade negotiation progress may become a key variable.

Comprehensive forecast: Long and short position ratio in the next 24 hours

- Bullish ratio: 55%-60% Reason:
- The resilience of US tech stocks (led by the Nasdaq) + if the CPI data is moderate, it may trigger expectations for interest rate cuts.
- Cryptocurrency whales increase their holdings of tokens such as TAO and ETH, combined with the potential benefits of the stablecoin bill.
- Bearish Ratio: 40%-45% Risk:
- CPI exceeding expectations may dampen risk appetite, leading to pullback pressure on high valuation sectors in the US stock market (such as Apple and Tesla).
- The behavior of large whales reducing their holdings may trigger a short-term sell-off in the crypto market.

Operation Suggestions

- US stocks: Short-term focus on technology stocks (NVIDIA, Amazon) and inflation-sensitive sectors (energy, finance).
- Crypto: If BTC breaks through $106,000, you can go long; if it falls below $103,700, you need to stop loss; ETH focuses on the resistance level of $2,550.
- Hedging Strategy: Reduce leverage before and after the CPI announcement, and allocate gold and government bonds to hedge against volatility.

(Data source: Glassnode, CryptoQuant, Bloomberg, Dongwu Securities)