⚠️ On June 17th, the Federal Reserve will hold a blockbuster meeting, and now the whole market is betting on cutting interest rates this time! At present, the probability of interest rate cuts is predicted to soar to 80%, which is comparable to the popularity of gambling betting. Trump has been like crazy recently, tweeting every day that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is "Mr. Too Late", forcing people to cut interest rates by 1%, and saying that he wants to replace Powell, and the new candidates are almost decided. This old man is really anxious, after all, the latest economic data is too stretching - only 75,000 new jobs were created in May, which is more than halved than expected, and the GDP growth rate has also been lowered, and the economy will be really cool if there is no interest rate cut.

If you ask me, this meeting is a life-and-death game of politics and economics: Trump wants to use interest rate cuts to gain leverage for re-election, but the Federal Reserve is afraid that if they cut too quickly, inflation will explode. Just look at the recent market, the yield on US Treasuries has plummeted, and gold is jumping up and down; these are all signs of the storm before the calm. Especially with Trump's threat to replace Powell, this move directly rubs the independence of the Federal Reserve into the ground, and investors are now in a panic — what if a compliant chair is appointed, wouldn't monetary policy become a political tool?
Here are three pieces of advice for retail investors:
Don't gamble on one side: The market sentiment is like a powder keg right now, reduce leverage contracts before the meeting to prevent a black swan liquidation.
Watch the wind vane: Focus on the May CPI data released on June 15. If inflation is kept in check, interest rate cuts are basically secured.
Advance Positioning: If there is indeed a rate cut, it will directly benefit Bitcoin, while gold and tech stocks may also gain some advantage, but be careful of the "good news fully priced in turning into bad news."
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