Market Bullish and Bearish Predictions for June 9, 2025 (Next 24 Hours)

Combining the dynamics of the US stock market, cryptocurrency market, and macro events, the comprehensive judgment is as follows:
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Bull and Bear Index of the US Stock Market
- Bullish ratio: 45%
- Supporting factors:
1. Short-term momentum for tech stocks: Market sentiment remains optimistic after earnings reports from leading stocks such as NVIDIA and Tesla, with expectations for AI technology applications supporting valuation reshaping.
2. Policy easing signals: Progress in China-U.S. trade negotiations and the short-term easing of tariff policies by the Trump administration alleviate market concerns.
3. Technical Recovery: The S&P 500 stabilized near the 200-day moving average (around 5900 points), and a breakthrough above 5950 points may trigger short covering.
- Suppressive factors:
1. Economic recession signals: Rising unemployment rate (4.2%) and weak manufacturing PMI (49.5), weakening profit expectations.
2. Whales Selling Pressure: Tech stocks such as Tesla are facing institutional selling pressure, and Goldman Sachs warns that tariff policies may trigger a second bottom.
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Cryptocurrency Market Bull-Bear Index
- Bullish Ratio: 50%
- Supporting factors:
1. Whale Accumulation Signal: An anonymous whale has continuously increased its holdings of BTC (a total of $153 million), with a cost price of $58,000, currently showing significant unrealized gains, indicating long-term confidence.
2. Institutional capital inflow: JPMorgan plans to accept Bitcoin ETF collateral financing, enhancing expectations for collateral premium.
3. Technical support: BTC has formed a liquidity threshold at $103,300, and a breakout above $107,000 in the short term may trigger a short squeeze.
- Suppressive factors:
1. High leverage short position pressure: The top three short positions on the HyperLiquid platform amount to 320 million USD (leverage of 10-40 times). If the price breaks through 107,000 USD, it may trigger a liquidation wave.
2. Regulatory Uncertainty: The EU plans to classify Bitcoin as an illegal currency (probability 18%), which may trigger a cross-market sell-off.
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Key data and event impact
1. US stock market driving events:
- Non-farm data aftermath: 139,000 new jobs in May (unemployment rate 4.2%) alleviates recession worries, but weak wage growth limits optimism.
- Musk-Trump dispute: The divergence in tariff policies between the two may affect Tesla and the new energy sector, posing short-term negative effects on technology stocks.
2. Cryptocurrency On-chain Signals:
- Glassnode data: Long-term holders (HODLers) have reached a historical peak in holdings, in sync with the accumulation by whales, reflecting an enhanced consensus at the bottom.
- Options Market: $102,000 put options account for 41%, $110,000 call options account for 26%, intensifying the long-short competition.
3. Impact of European Market Linkage:
- German automotive sector under pressure: The stalemate in tariff negotiations between the EU and the US is weighing on Daimler and other car manufacturers, which may impact related US stock targets.
- Divergence between silver and gold: Silver breaking through $36.5/oz may lead to short-term volatility in blockchain mining stocks (such as Riot Blockchain).
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Operation Suggestions
- US Stock Strategy:
- Short-term: Focus on the S&P 500's breakthrough at the 5950 resistance level. If it breaks out with volume, you can take a light long position; if it drops below 5880, then observe.
- Sectors: Avoid high valuation tech stocks (such as Tesla), focus on defensive sectors (pharmaceuticals, utilities).
- Cryptocurrency Strategy:
- BTC: If it holds above $104,000, consider buying in batches, target $107,000; stop loss if it falls below $103,000.
- ETH: Pay attention to the $2400 support. If it rebounds with BTC, you can participate, with a stop loss at $2350.
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Risk Warning
- Policy Black Swan: On June 10, the U.S. House of Representatives will review the "Market Structure Act" which, if passed, could restrict high-frequency trading and impact liquidity.
- Whale Activity: If the HyperLiquid shorts concentrate their positions, it may trigger severe short-term volatility.
Conclusion: The market is in a critical period of long and short battles, with U.S. stocks showing a slight bearish trend in the short term (45% bullish), while cryptocurrencies are neutral to slightly bullish (50% bullish). It is important to be wary of sudden changes in policies and the behavior of on-chain whales.