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Big Trend Analysis
The probability of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle in September is 100%, and the halving effect along with deepening institutional holdings still supports the logic of a bull market, but we must be wary of policy black swan events.
The current market is in a balancing phase between bullish drivers and macroeconomic bearish pressures, and a technical breakout needs to be accompanied by an improvement in policy expectations.
Next, pay attention to the June CPI data and the Federal Reserve's statements. If inflation cools more than expected, it may signal an early interest rate cut; conversely, it could increase volatility.
If it breaks through the resistance at 106,000 with volume, the target looks towards 110,000; if it is blocked and falls back, you can short it accordingly, paying attention to the effectiveness of the support at 104,500.