#ETH • Technical analysis: From the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger bands are running in parallel, the KDJ golden cross is upward, the MACD indicator is diverging, and there is a chance to rebound in the short term. Recently, Ethereum has pulled back about 8% since hitting a high of $2,750 on May 27, and the short-term adjustment has entered a critical stage, with the Bollinger Bands narrowing to the $2,450-$2,600 range, and the price is running near the lower band, indicating that the direction choice is approaching. At the daily level, the psychological support level of $2,500 has stabilized for many consecutive days, and the medium-term upward trend has not changed, but it is necessary to be wary of the risk of $2,450 (Fibonacci 0.382 retracement) breaking.

• Driver Analysis: In terms of technology upgrades, the Pectra upgrade completed in May introduced account abstraction (EIP-7702) and a higher staking cap, enhancing network efficiency and developer friendliness. Additionally, the Pectra upgrade testnet will launch on June 12, with mainnet deployment expected to be completed by the end of July, which will improve transaction processing capacity and reduce Layer 2 transaction costs. In terms of capital flow, the US spot Ethereum ETF has seen a net inflow of $486 million for nine consecutive days. BlackRock's ETHA and Fidelity's FETH saw daily inflows of $50.4 million and $38.3 million, respectively, indicating a preference for institutional funds. However, the competitive pressure among public chains continues to rise, and the development of public chains like Solana and Polygon may create a diversion effect on Ethereum.
• Short-term trend forecast: If the price re-establishes above $2550, it is expected to challenge the $2755 integer level; if the breakout fails, it may pull back to the 2461 USD support level. If the overall market sentiment deteriorates or the technicals break below 2461 USD, it could accelerate downwards to $2300.
• Long-term trend forecast: As the leading smart contract platform, Ethereum's technological advantages and ecological prosperity are still widely optimistic. Analysts predict that Ethereum could rise to $6,500 by 2025. In the long term, with institutional funds flowing in through ETFs and other channels, as well as the continuous growth of DeFi and NFT applications, there is sufficient upward momentum. However, attention should be paid to the impacts of regulatory policies and technological breakthroughs by competitors. #BTC行情分析