TRB only represents the current trend inference and does not represent the subsequent actual market.

#TRB
1. General direction reasoning: Short-term highs are under pressure, and there is a high probability of a pullback after a surge, with severe fluctuations possible at any time.
Core conclusion

After the current surge, the main forces have begun to significantly reduce their positions and short-sell, showing obvious signs of a short-term peak. There is a high probability of a fluctuation and decline in the next 12 hours.

There is a risk of a rapid decline after a "fake-out to lure long positions and then liquidate short positions" in the market, with extremely large fluctuations, making it easy to get liquidated when chasing higher prices.

2. Inference and Key Data Logic
A. Institutional/Individual Investor Behavior

Short-term main funds (15m, 30m, 1h) show net inflow/long positions (e.g., 15m main net long +660,000), but after 1 hour quickly turn to net outflow (1h main -240,000, 4h -2,660,000, 8h -7,410,000, 12h -7,550,000, 24h -8,170,000), with large funds continuously flowing out and the net outflow amount dramatically increasing.

The main forces and retail investors have all gone short in the past 24 hours, especially with the main forces continuously showing significant net shorts across multiple windows, indicating a clear signal of a peak and profit-taking.

Retail investors make quick moves to follow the trend and go long, but the main forces are shorting at high levels, making it easy to be liquidated at those highs.

B. Capital flow slope and trend changes

15m-1h is "decelerated inflow" / "accelerated outflow". After 1h, 4h, and 8h, the main capital has obviously accelerated its exit, with an extremely negative slope, which belongs to "significantly cashing out after reaching the peak."

The multi-window trend analysis all points to "accelerated outflow" or "extreme deterioration", indicating a withdrawal by the main players at high levels.

C. Position/Price Linkage

The price surged significantly (24h +30.93%), but after reaching its peak in positions between 8h-12h, the changes in positions have slowed down in the last 4 hours, even showing a slight retreat, which is typical of "pump and dump".

The price continues to rise with inertia within 1 hour, but the growth rate is declining, and the main forces are clearly enticing retail investors.

The amount of energy is sharply amplified and then shrinks, which is the characteristic of short-term peaking.

D. Technical Assistance

Technical indicators have shown a top divergence signal, extreme volume, and KDJ/RSI are becoming dull at high levels, posing significant short-term risks.

3. Probability forecast of trends within 12 hours
After a surge in the first 0-3 hours, it retreated to $44-46. Do not chase the high price, reduce positions at the high level first. For long positions, it is safe to take profits. In the next 3-12 hours, there may be a sharp correction or high-level oscillation, with a retracement range of $39.5-41.5. When there is a pullback, gradually buy in at lower prices, and avoid chasing the rise.
Extreme Volatility Range:

If the main force suddenly replenishes long positions, it may test the high again at 47-48 dollars, but this probability is low. The main force is likely to quickly pull back after a spike to clear out short positions, and the probability of dropping below 41.5 dollars is relatively high.

4. Concise Strategic Recommendations

Don't chase the highs! We are currently in a phase of significant reduction in positions by the main forces and high-level harvesting.

If there are multiple positions, be sure to take profits in batches when the price rises, and wait for a pullback to buy low.

If you want to short, wait for a clear reversal in capital flow for 5 minutes to 1 hour (retail investors are frantically chasing longs while the main players are still adding shorts), and enter the market at the right time.

Prevent drastic fluctuations and set stop-loss orders. The short-term volatility is significant, so it's not advisable to take large positions in speculation.

5. Summary/Plain Language

TRB has completed the main force's sharp rise + shipment action, and the main force and retail investors have been sharply shorted at a high level. In the next 12 hours, there is a high probability that the high shock will fall, and the volatility will be extremely high, and there is a high probability that it will be quickly killed after the rise. Do not chase the rise and kill the fall, and give priority to steady operation. The normal callback target is $39.5-41.5, if the main funds return sharply, then consider covering the long order, otherwise the high long order should be in the bag.