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1. Sorting Out Data Phenomena and Main Force Behavior

Institutional/Individual Investor Dynamics

Main fund flow: Short-term (1h) shows strong inflow (+160,000), but in the 4h and above windows, there is a large outflow, with 8h/-980,000, 12h/-540,000, 24h/-570,000 (the main force repeatedly raises prices and reduces positions, resulting in a significant overall outflow)

Retail funds: The phenomenon of short-term chasing up is obvious, with a net outflow of small amounts within 1 hour and a net inflow of +270,000 within 4 hours, but the larger cycles are also experiencing net outflows (8h/12h/24h).

The positions increased significantly in 24 hours (+35%), with both institutional and retail funds flowing out, indicating that most of the new positions were taken over by "non-institutional/retail funds" (or short positions being locked).

Capital flow velocity and position volatility

The short-term main funds have just shown signs of replenishment (slight inflow in 30m/1h), but the larger cycle is still in continuous retreat.

In the past 4 to 12 hours, the outflow of main funds has converged, and the outflow speed has obviously slowed down, but the momentum for fund inflow is still insufficient.

Price Resonance with Positions

The price briefly surged to $32.9, with a 24h increase of over 7%. However, the rapid turnover of positions indicates that it is driven by "high turnover + short-term speculative capital." Both the main forces and retail investors have not significantly increased their holdings; instead, they are continuously distributing.

The market shows signs of quick cashing out by the main players after chasing highs and forced liquidations.

2. Reasoning and 12-Hour Trend Logic

A. The main behavior is "raising prices to reduce positions + swing arbitrage"

After the main force raises the price in the short term, they continue to reduce their positions, with outflows being the main focus. Funds are repeatedly speculating, making it easy for the market to rise sharply and then fall back.

The positions are quickly expanding, with major players continuously withdrawing. The rebound is more due to short-term hot money taking over, rather than sustained control by the main players.

B. Capital Trend: There may be a second surge in the short term, but the height is limited. If the main force continues to reduce positions, a drop can occur at any time.

Funds have flowed back within 1 hour (+160,000), indicating a possible short-term rebound.

However, as long as the main outflow has not stopped within 4 to 12 hours, future rebound heights should be approached with caution, as it may turn into a trap for selling at any time.

C. Market Risk Points

If the capital inflow for new long positions cannot be sustained, there is a high risk of multiple liquidations at high levels.

If the main force reverses and continues to net outflow, the price is likely to drop rapidly.