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Institutional analysis: Trump's tariff policy is expected to have a mild impact on the US PCE in April.
On May 25, institutional analysis pointed out that the market expects the US core PCE price index to rise by 0.1% m/m in April next Friday, compared with flat in March. Economists generally agree that while the impact of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on April price data will be modest, the impact of trade policy is expected to become more pronounced as early as next month. With no clear signs of deterioration in the current job market, Fed officials are inclined to keep interest rates unchanged until the impact of trade policy adjustments is fully felt in economic data. ( gold ten )