XRP price forecast after Judge Torres shattered SEC-Ripple deal

XRP has seen a sharp decline today, dropping by almost 4%, adding to its weekly drop of over 10%.

Despite a recent wave of institutional adoption and new strategic partnerships, Ripple’s native token is under intense bearish pressure, largely triggered by broader market sentiment and renewed legal uncertainty.

The situation has escalated further following Judge Analisa Torres’s decision to reject a proposed settlement between the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Ripple Labs, stirring up fresh volatility in the digital asset.

James K. Filan 🇺🇸🇮🇪

@FilanLaw
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#XRPCommunity #SECGov v. #Ripple #XRP Judge Torres has denied the parties’ motion for an indicative ruling. “If jurisdiction were restored to this Court, the Court would deny the parties’ motion as procedurally improper.”

11:28 pm · 15 May 2025
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The court’s refusal to approve the $50 million settlement agreement has not only delayed potential legal closure but also reignited speculation around the regulatory status of XRP.

With both Ripple and the SEC now expected to return to the negotiating table, traders and institutional investors are left in limbo, seeing that the development has already begun to influence market behavior, as seen in heightened trading volume and shrinking price levels.

Increased market activity, muted investor response

Over the past 24 hours, XRP’s trading volume surged by nearly 59%, reaching over $3.8 billion.

This spike in volume alongside declining prices suggests that traders are likely engaging in profit-taking or repositioning in anticipation of further downside.

Notably, the price of XRP is dropping despite Ripple’s groundbreaking announcement of its partnerships with UAE-based Zand Bank and fintech firm Mamo.

Ripple’s continued expansion into the Middle East, particularly after acquiring a Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) license, underscores its commitment to global adoption.

Zand Bank, the UAE’s first digital bank, and Mamo have both agreed to integrate Ripple Payments, boosting XRP’s use in cross-border settlements.

However, investor sentiment remains cautious, especially amid unresolved legal issues and a volatile macro environment in the crypto market.

Technical weakness signals further losses

From a technical analysis perspective, XRP is showing significant signs of weakness.

The token is currently trading at around $2.31, a level that marks a considerable retreat from last week’s high of $2.65.

Analyst Ali Martinez has observed a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern on the one-hour chart, with the neckline positioned around the $2.30 zone.

Ali

@ali_charts
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$XRP could return to $2 if it loses the critical $2.30 support!

3:56 am · 19 May 2025
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A decisive breakdown below this neckline could open the door for a slide toward the psychological support level at $2.00.

Moreover, XRP is hovering just above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which stands at $2.28.

Should this support fail, further declines toward the 100-day and 200-day EMAs, located at $2.25 and $2.00, respectively, would become increasingly likely.

However, despite these technical warnings, XRP is still trading above its long-term moving averages, providing a glimmer of hope for bulls if support holds firm.

On-chain data sends mixed signals

While price charts lean bearish, on-chain metrics show that investor interest in XRP remains resilient.

The Money Flow Index (MFI) indicates that more capital continues to flow into XRP than out, hinting at sustained accumulation.

At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to the neutral midline near 50, indicating waning momentum and the potential for further downside if selling pressure intensifies.

Adding to the uncertainty, Ripple is scheduled to unlock one billion XRP in the coming days.

Although these monthly token unlocks have historically caused minimal disruptions, they could heighten volatility given the current market fragility and legal ambiguity.

Any price movement surrounding the unlock will likely depend on whether Ripple decides to relock or sell the tokens on the open market.

CME futures fail to ignite bullish momentum

Institutional interest in XRP has reached new levels with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) launching XRP futures on May 19.

The derivatives offer both standard and micro contracts, allowing traders to gain exposure to XRP’s price without holding the asset.

However, this milestone has not translated into immediate bullish momentum.

Despite the institutional access and increased legitimacy, XRP’s price response has remained muted, mirroring the broader market’s indecision.

The timing of CME’s launch of XRP futures coincided with a market-wide downturn and Ripple’s legal setback, both of which likely overshadowed the otherwise bullish event.

XRP price outlook remains cautious

XRP’s short-term trajectory remains heavily dependent on both technical indicators and developments in the courtroom.

While the denial of the SEC-Ripple deal has disrupted hopes for a swift resolution, it has not entirely derailed the project’s broader progress.

Ripple’s real-world integrations and expanding global presence offer longer-term value propositions, even if the token is currently under pressure.

As XRP clings to crucial support at $2.30, the market is clearly at a crossroads.

A confirmed breakdown below this level could trigger a deeper correction toward $2.00 or lower.

On the other hand, if buyers defend the zone and broader sentiment improves, a relief rally toward $2.62 or even the $3.10 resistance is not out of reach.

For now, XRP investors must navigate a complex environment marked by legal uncertainty, technical fragility, and mixed fundamental signals. Until clearer catalysts emerge, volatility is likely to persist.

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