2025.05.19 12:00 BTC and ETH market analysis

1. BTC Market Analysis
(1) Structural Observation:
BTC once broke through to 107100 on the 4-hour chart, forming a clear BOS structure, but was quickly engulfed by a large bearish candle, causing the price to retreat to 103800, which is a typical false breakout pattern. This situation of "BOS failure + FVG recovery" reflects the exhaustion of bullish short-term momentum.
On the 1-hour chart, a Choch breakdown has already occurred, and the short-term strong bullish structure is starting to weaken. The current price is testing the previous high support between 103300 and 103500, which coincides with the FVG area.
The 15-minute chart has also broken below the FVG and order block support formed in the morning, confirming a short-term Choch at the 103700 level, with momentum to continue probing the 103000 area.
(2) Order Flow Performance (Order Book + CVD)
In the 15-minute price chart, starting from the loss of 104800, the active sell orders have significantly increased, and the bears are exerting pressure with increased volume. However, after dipping to 103800, the bearish momentum has weakened somewhat, but there are still no clear signs of accumulation.
The 1-hour order book and CVD data show that during the decline starting around 107000, the CVD rapidly fell, with bears dominating. However, the overall open interest (OI) did not increase significantly, indicating that this round of decline was more due to long position liquidations and short-term follow-ups by bears.
(3) Clearing and Position Observation
In terms of liquidation data, 106000–106500 is the upper area of accumulated short liquidations, which creates strong resistance in the short term; while the concentrated area of long liquidations below is between 102800–103200. If 103000 is breached, it could trigger a liquidity cascade.
OI experienced a slight rebound after a double explosion of long and short positions last night, but overall it has not yet fully recovered, and the main capital remains conservative. More confirmation is needed for the short-term direction.
(4) Strategic Recommendations (BTC)
Main strategy: Wait for signs of a bottoming out in the range of 103000–103200 before considering a long position.
• Entry conditions: Price stops falling at OB + overlaps with liquidation support zone, accompanied by CVD recovery and Delta turning from negative to positive.
• Entry Range: 103000–103200
• Target Levels: First target 104400–105000, second target 105800–106200
• Stop Loss Level: Below 102500 (4-hour structure breakdown)
If 103000 is breached and closes below, the trend may enter a medium-term consolidation or deep correction, pay attention to the support at 101800 / 100500.
2. ETH Market Analysis
(1) Structural Observation:
ETH has fallen from above 2500, currently dropping to the FVG and order block support area near 2370, forming a clear "failed retracement + Choch breakdown" structure, indicating weakness in the bulls.
The 1-hour chart has consecutively broken through two key structural lows, and the trend has entered a downward oscillation phase. In the short term, it's testing the range of 2365–2375, with increasing divergence between bulls and bears.
The 15-minute chart shows small-scale buying intervention around 2377–2380, with a slight price rebound, suspected to be preliminary accumulation.
(2) Order Flow Performance (Order Book + CVD)
In the ETH order book chart, multiple bearish candles combined with a significant negative Delta indicate a clear short-term dominance of bears. Although there are some signs of low-level buying in the 2377–2380 range, there has not yet been a continuous accumulation of buying or signals of a trend reversal.
In terms of open interest, after the liquidation of long positions, OI started to rebound slightly, but the main players remain cautious and lack clear signs of a counterattack.
(3) Settlement and Risk Band (CoinGlass)
The overall liquidation band of ETH has shifted downwards, with the upper 2470–2500 area being a key short liquidation zone, forming resistance in the short term. The lower 2320–2350 area is a concentrated zone for long liquidations, and if it breaks below 2340, it may trigger a deeper round of sell-off.
(4) Strategic Recommendations (ETH)
Main strategy: Patiently wait for structural bottoming signals to appear in the 2365–2375 range before considering a low buy.
• Entry conditions: Long lower shadow candlestick appears on the 15-minute or 1-hour chart + CVD warming up + Delta turning positive
• Entry range: 2365–2375
• Stop-loss setting: below 2340 (structure + liquidation support lower edge)
• Target levels: First target 2450–2500, second target resistance zone above 2520
If 2340 is lost and volume increases in the decline, it will open up deeper FVG space towards 2280–2300.

3. Summary and Risk Warning
Currently, both BTC and ETH are facing critical support verification after a pullback:
• BTC: Pay attention to whether the 103000–103200 range can stop the decline; if it breaks down, it will exacerbate the adjustment.
• ETH: The support level is at 2365–2375, if it breaks 2340, it may enter a deep decline.
The upper pressure is concentrated at: BTC's 105800–106200 and ETH's 2480–2520 area.
Submitted by the DT-SMC trading community (Copyright infringement will be pursued)