BTC Future Trend Analysis (SCDO_AI Report)

——Analysis of the medium to long-term trend resonating with technical and macro factors Date: April 14, 2025

1. Multi-Dimensional Analysis of Technical Indicators

1. Trend and Momentum Indicators

• MACD (12,26,9):
  • DIF：-0.00034 (below the zero axis)
  • DEA：-0.00045 (Death cross continues, green bars expand)
  • Conclusion: Currently, short-term bearish momentum is strong, and the MACD indicates that downward pressure in the market is still present. If the DIF and DEA continue to expand, prices may further decline.
• EMA Combination:
  • EMA30：$84,500
  • EMA200：$72,000
  • Conclusion: The current price is between EMA30 and EMA200, and the breakout direction is still unconfirmed in the short term. If the price breaks below the EMA30 support level (around $84,000), it may test the EMA200 area (around $72,000).

2. Oscillation and Volume Indicators

• KDJ (9,3,3)：
  • K Value: 21 (close to oversold area)
  • D Value: 24 (bearish arrangement)
  • J Value: 19 (extremely low position, short-term rebound demand increases)
  • Conclusion: The KDJ indicator is in the oversold area, suggesting a short-term rebound demand. If a golden cross occurs in the short term, it may drive the price upward.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2)：
  • Middle Track：$85,000
  • Upper and Lower Bound: $82,000 / $90,000
  • Conclusion: The price is close to the lower Bollinger Band. If it continues to decline, it may test the support level of the lower Bollinger Band. If it breaks through the upper band, it may further break through to the $90,000 range.
• RSI (14 day): 44
  • Conclusion: The current RSI value is in a neutral to bearish area and has not yet entered the oversold or overbought zones. If the RSI falls below 40, it may confirm that bearish momentum remains strong.
• Trading Volume: The trading volume in the past 24 hours was $3.5 billion, an increase of 3% compared to the previous day, indicating a rebound in market participation.

3. Special Indicators

• TD Sequence: Currently at count 8, approaching a potential reversal point. If confirmed by consecutive closes, it may trigger a trend reversal signal.
• AO (Acceleration Oscillator): The current histogram is blue (negative value), indicating that bearish momentum is weakening, but it remains in the downward range.

2. Key Support and Resistance

3. Analysis of Market Sentiment and Macroeconomic Factors

1. Market Sentiment

• Fear/Greed Index: The current market sentiment leans towards the “fear” range (value at 30). The market lacks clear confidence, and investors are in a cautious wait-and-see mode. This may indicate that the market is still in a volatile state in the short term, but if the fear sentiment is excessively amplified, it may bring about a rebound opportunity.

2. National Policies and Macroeconomic Factors

• Federal Reserve Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve plans to adjust its monetary policy around May 2025, and it is expected to decide on further interest rate hikes based on economic growth and inflation conditions. If the Federal Reserve maintains its rate hike stance, risk assets may face downward pressure, and BTC may also be affected.
• China Policy: China’s regulatory attitude towards cryptocurrencies is gradually becoming more lenient. By 2025, the Chinese government will strengthen its support for blockchain technology, promoting the legalization process of digital assets. If China continues to ease cryptocurrency regulatory policies, it could have a positive impact on the demand for BTC.
• Global Inflation Data: The release of inflation data from various countries will further impact market sentiment in 2025. If global inflation remains at a high level, BTC, as one of the assets that hedge against inflation, may receive support from capital inflows.
• ETF Applications and Institutional Fund Inflows: The ETF applications for BTC remain a focal point of market attention. If the ETF is approved, more institutional funds will enter the market, driving up the price of BTC.

IV. Forecasting Trends for the Next Month

Scenario 1: Continuing Rise (Probability 45%)

• Trigger Conditions:
• If the Federal Reserve maintains a dovish policy, global economic data supports risk assets, BTC breaks through $85,000 with increased trading volume.
• Target Level: $90,000 (key resistance), looking towards $95,000-$100,000 after a breakout.
• Risk Factors: US CPI data exceeded expectations, and market risk aversion sentiment is rising.

Scenario 2: Consolidation (Probability 40%)

• Trigger Conditions:
  • The BTC price is fluctuating in the range of $82,000-$85,000, with trading volume remaining at a low level.
• Market sentiment has not improved, and market participants are largely in a wait-and-see mood.
• Target level: $80,000-$85,000 range, break through and then choose the direction.

Scenario 3: Downside Risk (Probability 15%)

• Trigger Condition:
  • BTC fell below $82,000, MACD green bars increased, RSI fell below 40.
• The global economy is under greater pressure, with the Federal Reserve possibly raising interest rates or poor economic data from various countries.
• Target Level: $75,000 (EMA200 support level), if it breaks, it will test $70,000.

5. Operating Strategies and Risk Control

• Long Position Strategy:
  • Entry: Open positions in batches between $82,000 and $83,000.
  • Stop Loss: $80,000.
  • Target：$85,000-$90,000.
• Short Position Strategy:
  • Entry: Pressure in the range of $85,000-$86,000, short position.
  • Stop Loss: $87,000.
  • Target: $82,000-$80,000.
• Risk Control Strategy:
  • Reduce Position: If the price continues to pull back to the support zone, it is advisable to reduce positions in a timely manner to avoid significant drawdowns.
  • Stop Loss: Immediately stop loss when the price falls below the key support level to control risk.

6. Comprehensive Conclusion

The movement of BTC in the next month will be mainly influenced by market sentiment, macroeconomic policies, and technical indicators. In the short term, BTC may fluctuate between $82,000 and $85,000, but once it breaks through, it is expected to challenge the strong resistance level of $90,000. Market sentiment and global economic policies will be important factors determining the future trend of BTC.