ETH daily chart Depth analysis—short-term Rebound and the game of key support

Date: April 13, 2025 Current Price: $1,616.97**

1. Multi-dimensional Analysis of Technical Indicators

1. Trend and Momentum Indicators

• MACD(12,26,9)：
  • DIF: Below the zero axis
  • DEA: Formed a death cross with DIF, green bars continue to expand.
  • Conclusion: Bearish momentum strengthens, short-term trend is weak
• EMA Combination:
  • EMA30: approximately $1,650
  • EMA200: approximately $1,800
  • Conclusion: The price is below EMA30, short-term pressure is evident.

2. Volatility and Volume Indicators

• KDJ (9,3,3):
  • K value: Approximately 25 (oversold zone)
  • D value: approximately 30
  • J value: Approximately 15 (extremely low position)
  • Conclusion: KDJ is oversold, short-term rebound demand is increasing
• Bollinger Bands (20,2):
  • Middle Track: Approximately $1,650
  • Lower Bound: Approximately $1,590
  • Conclusion: The price is close to the lower band, a short-term rebound may occur
• Trading Volume: The trading volume in the past 24 hours is approximately 600,000 ETH, which is a slight decrease compared to the previous day, indicating an increase in market wait-and-see sentiment.

3. Special Indicators

• RSI (14): About 35, close to the oversold area, a short-term rebound may occur.
• TD Sequence: Current count is 7, approaching potential reversal signal

2. Key Support and Resistance

3. Multi-Period Resonance Analysis

• Daily Level: Bearish dominance, price is below EMA30, but KDJ is oversold, a short-term rebound may occur.
• 4-hour level: The price is close to the lower Bollinger Band, KDJ has a golden cross at a low level, the probability of a short-term rebound has increased
• Weekly Level: MACD death cross, bearish trend continues, need to pay attention to the support below.

4. On-chain and Macroeconomic Factors

• On-chain data: A certain whale bought 4,224.5 ETH at an average price of $1,619 during a downtrend, indicating recognition of the current price.
• Macroeconomic Factors: The market is focused on the upcoming US CPI data; if the data exceeds expectations, it could exacerbate market volatility.

5. Future 12-Hour Trend Projection

Scenario One: Technical Rebound (Probability 50%)

Trigger Condition: The price stabilizes around $1,590, the KDJ golden cross, and the volume is amplified

• Target Level: $1,650 (EMA30), if broken, look towards $1,700 (EMA200)

Scenario 2: Continued Decline (Probability 30%)

• Trigger Conditions: Price drops below $1,590, MACD green bars expand, trading volume increases
• Target Level: $1,550 (previous low), if it fails to hold, then look towards $1,500

Scenario 3: Consolidation (Probability 20%)

• Trigger Condition: Price oscillates in the range of $1,590-$1,650, and trading volume shrinks.
• Strategy: Sell high, buy low, short-term operation.

6. Operational Strategies and Risk Control

• Long Position Strategy:
  • Entry Point: $1,590-$1,600
  • Stop Loss Level:$1,580
  • Target Price: $1,650-$1,700
• Short Position Strategy:
  • Entry Point: $1,650-$1,660
  • Stop-loss level：$1,670
  • Target Price: $1,590-$1,550
• Risk Control: Strictly set stop losses, control positions, and avoid chasing highs and selling lows.

VII. Comprehensive Conclusion

ETH is currently near a key support level, and technical indicators suggest a possible short-term rebound, but the overall trend remains bearish. Investors should closely monitor the performance of the $1,590 support level, as well as the upcoming macroeconomic data, and adjust their trading strategies flexibly.