1. 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate

This data represents a measure of expected inflation derived from the 10-Year Constant Maturity Treasury Securities (BC_10YEAR) and the 10-Year Constant Maturity Inflation-Indexed Securities (TC_10YEAR). It implies that market participants expect an average inflation value over the next 10 years.

tradingview: T10YIE

2. 5Y5Y Forward (5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate)

This data means the market's expectations for the average annual inflation rate over the next 5 years, starting 5 years from now. It is derived from the yield spread between TIPS and Nominal Treasuries (Break-even inflation rate) to infer the market's expectations for future inflation.

tradingview: T5YIFR

These two pieces of data show that the current interest rate market, particularly the reaction of short-term rates, may have exaggerated the sentiment of uncontrolled inflation (of course, it cannot be ruled out that large sell-offs of government bonds led to this). The severe volatility in the U.S. Treasury market is not due to runaway inflation expectations (long-term inflation expectations remain stable), but may be attributed to factors such as short-term funding, supply pressures, or spread trading.

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