What is the Benner cycle? Learn about the Benner cycle

In the volatile world of investment, understanding the movements of the market is always what savvy investors yearn for.

One of the classic models that has made a significant impact in the financial world is the Benner Cycle – the lifelong research achievement of Samuel Benner, an ordinary American farmer with a sharp, timeless mindset.

Although it originated in the 19th century, this model still amazes many people with its ability to predict crises and economic growth with astonishing accuracy.

In this article, we will explore the portrait of Samuel Benner, the reasons behind the formation of the Benner Cycle, how the model works, and whether it is still relevant in the current era of cryptocurrency and booming technology.

Who is Samuel Benner? The origin of the Benner cycle and the legacy that endures over time

When mentioning Samuel Benner, one cannot simply regard him as an ordinary farmer of the 19th century. Living in Ohio – a land that was peaceful yet full of economic turmoil during the post-Civil War era in the United States – Benner was once a grower and trader of agricultural products.

His life might have passed quietly if the financial crisis of 1873 had not struck, sweeping away all the fruits of his lifelong labor.

Being pushed into a state of bankruptcy, Benner did not choose to succumb. On the contrary, he began to delve into market research, seeking to understand economic history with a fierce desire: how can one foresee the future?

From the pain of being caught in the whirlpool of crisis, Benner begins the journey of exploring a mysterious law hidden behind seemingly chaotic financial fluctuations.

The Secret Behind Economic Waves: The Origin of the Benner Cycle

Throughout the process of pondering historical documents and financial data, Samuel Benner gradually realized a strange thing: economic shocks are not entirely random.

On the contrary, they appear in a repeating pattern – like cyclical waves, sometimes thriving, sometimes dwindling.

Feeling the “pulse” of the market clearly, he believes that the future can be predicted – from crisis to recovery.

In 1875, Benner published Benner’s Prophecies of Future Ups and Downs in Prices, in which he outlined a model of market cycles—now known as the Benner Cycle—based on years of crisis, growth, and depression.

No need for scholarly titles, no need for economic degrees, Benner leaves a strong mark thanks to sharp intuition and unwavering determination.

Decoding the Benner cycle structure

Benner’s model divides the economic flow into three main phases:

• Year A (Crisis – Collapse Years)

• These are the years witnessing the collapse of the financial market.
• The value of assets has evaporated, investor confidence has fallen to rock bottom.
• These years are often the end of a previous prosperity cycle.

• Year B (Strong Growth – Boom Years)

• Boom phase.
• The stock market is rising, commodity prices are soaring, and investors are excited.
• The time to “harvest” for those who know how to invest early.

• Year C (Recession – Bottom Years)

• When the economy sinks deep into gloom, assets drop in value.
• However, according to Benner, this is a golden opportunity to “buy low” and prepare for the next recovery cycle.

The Benner cycle operates according to the 8-9-10 year rotation rule:

• After every 8 years, a slight recession occurs.
• Every 9 years, the market enters a recovery phase.
• And on average over 10 years, there is another significant growth spurt.

This model may sound simple, but when compared to the historical flow of the global economy, many major fluctuations surprisingly coincide.

Benner Cycle in Practice

The Great Depression of 1929

The dark year of Wall Street – “Black Tuesday” (Black Tuesday) – occurred in 1929, exactly at the time suggested by the Benner Cycle. This is the clearest evidence of the predictive capability of this model.

Financial Crisis 2008

Nearly a century later, 2008 marked a global financial crisis triggered by the burst of the US housing bubble. Coincidentally, the Benner Cycle also indicated the possibility of a crisis occurring at that exact period.

Growth Years

• 1980: The global financial market entered a booming phase.
• 1999: The dot-com bubble inflated expectations and profits.
• 2019: Before COVID-19 appeared, the financial market reached many new records.

Blind spot of the Benner cycle

Although there have been many instances of miraculous matches, Benner’s model is not a perfect “crystal ball”. At times, non-traditional factors have caused it to go off course:

• World War: World War I (1914-1918) and World War II (1939-1945) disrupted all economic logic, causing the cycle to be broken.
• Technology Boom of the 2010s: The rise of tech giants like Apple, Tesla, Amazon… does not follow the traditional path of the model.
• COVID-19 and the 2020 Recession: An unprecedented global health shock caused the market to plummet – a factor completely outside the forecast of any economic model.

What does the Benner cycle predict for the upcoming decades?

Based on the trajectory that Samuel Benner once outlined, the coming years may hold many turning points:

• 2026 - 2034: Forecasted to be a period of strong growth, a golden time for investment, business development, and profit optimization.
• Early 2030s: It could be the right time to buy in – bottom fishing the cycle to anticipate growth.
• Year 2035: According to the model, it could be a major crisis year, similar to 1929 or 2008.

However, experts are still debating. In the era of breakthrough technology, climate change, and tense geopolitical situations, does a model created over 150 years ago still hold value?

Conclusion

The Benner Cycle is not just a simple economic forecasting tool, but also a symbol of the relentless spirit of learning in the face of adversity.

From a farmer who lost everything, Samuel Benner has sparked a model that helps millions of investors gain additional insight when making financial decisions.

Although it cannot replace modern analysis or accurately predict every fluctuation, the Benner Cycle still serves as a preliminary guiding map.

It suggests to us that: the market, despite its fluctuations, still has its own rhythms.

In the era of cryptocurrency, blockchain technology and decentralized finance (DeFi), whether the Benner Cycle can adapt remains an open question.

But one thing is for sure: understanding the past is the first step to stepping confidently into the future. And in that journey, the legacy of Samuel Benner is always worth contemplating.

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